Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating favorable conditions for Greece’s energy and metals industries, as higher refining margins and rising aluminum prices improve the outlook for several major companies.
In its morning market commentary, Optima Bank said Greek refineries are likely to be among the main beneficiaries of the current market environment. Strong demand for so-called “middle distillates” — refined petroleum products such as diesel and jet fuel — is expected to support stronger earnings forecasts for 2026.
Greek refineries seen as key beneficiaries
According to the bank’s estimates, the current market conditions could push profitability higher for two of Greece’s largest refining companies, Motor Oil and Hellenic Energy.
Optima Bank projects that by 2026 Motor Oil could report earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of about €1.094 billion and net profits of €604 million.
For Hellenic Energy, the bank forecasts EBITDA of roughly €1.003 billion and net profits of €393 million.
A key factor behind these projections is the companies’ production mix. A significant share of their output consists of middle distillates, particularly diesel and jet fuel, which have recently seen strong refining margins in European markets.
Middle East tensions driving refining margins
The surge in margins is linked to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf region and concerns over potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for energy supplies.
These risks have pushed European refining margins sharply higher. Margins for jet fuel have exceeded $52 to $55 per barrel, while diesel margins have reached around $50 per barrel — the highest levels recorded since August 2022.
The increase reflects a combination of factors, including concerns about maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, refinery outages, export restrictions and specific supply pressures in aviation fuel markets.
At the same time, Optima Bank notes that Europe remains structurally short of middle distillates and heavily dependent on imports of these products from the Middle East.
Aluminum prices also rising
Developments in global metals markets are also providing support to Greek industry.
Aluminum prices have moved higher in recent weeks, benefiting companies such as METLEN Energy & Metals. The three-month aluminum contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has risen about 5% to 6% over the past month and more than 20% year over year.
However, Optima Bank does not expect a significant boost to METLEN’s profitability in 2026. Much of the company’s aluminum production has already been hedged for the next 12 to 18 months, limiting the immediate impact of higher market prices.
The Middle East plays an important role in global aluminum production, accounting for roughly 8% to 10% of worldwide smelting capacity. Both aluminum exports and alumina imports depend heavily on shipping routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any disruption in the region could influence global supply chains.
