The omens are not good. The EU and the UK seem to be on a collision course with Russia. This goes beyond the current, indirect but clear, confrontation through Ukraine. In fact, a direct war seems to have started already, currently being carried out in hybrid format, with drone incidents and cyber-attacks, but could eventually develop into armed warfare.
After two “Great Wars”, which are more broadly known as World Wars, one would hope that the continent of Europe and the powers sharing it would have learnt their lesson and co-exist peacefully. Apparently not, or the lesson’s influence ended at around the 80-year mark since the last world war. The spiral of escalation includes the latest assertion by the German government that it was Russia that planted a drone laden with explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport on 4 August 2026. The subsequent denial by Russia, through no other than its President, did not seem to convince the German side. Diplomatic response measures, expression of EU solidarity with Germany and further sanctions on Russia, follow a well-established pattern of rising suspicion and increasing alienation between the sides.
Paraphrasing Gabriel Garcia Marquez, it is like watching the chronicle of a war foretold unfolding in front of one’s eyes. The adversaries are coming ever closer, eyes fixed on each other, ready to clash. It seems to be a pre-determined conclusion: this “game of chicken” that Europe’s leaders from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific are playing is meant to lead to a major crash, as nobody is willing to let their foot off the gas pedal, and there is no referee to blow a whistle and snap them out of this madness.
If only the protagonists took a break and tried to see the situation through their adversary’s lenses. A Russian bear cornered by NATO and the EU, protective of its people and resources that it sees under threat from the West; an Eastern Europe reliving a nightmare of renewed totalitarian rule under a revived neo-Soviet, Russian empire; a Germany considering itself rehabilitated after World War II and finally having reunited itself now again under threat from Russian armies; a community of liberal democracies facing off a different style of centralized, authoritarian rule; and more.
An average person might feel some empathy for the other side if s/he saw things this way. Leaders, though, are not (supposed to be) average persons and in their presumed greatness they keep themselves away from signs of weakness, like showing empathy or understanding for what they consider a historically mortal enemy. This aloofness of the leaders and their bigger-than-life, history-writing attitude may well lead the European continent and eventually the whole world to another Great War, as indicated earlier. Moreover, the Universe may be conspiring, again, for that to happen, for its own reasons that may include punishment for human hubris, including the accelerating destruction of the planet and the killing or exploitation of each other.
In any case, many factors seem to be exacerbating this downward spiral, and no serious influence is apparent that would put on the breaks and help reverse course. Domestic political / electoral considerations are a major factor on all sides, as leaders want to remain leaders in the historically super-human way mentioned earlier. Moreover, this is a playground for provocateurs on all sides, people who are dead set to see a lethal confrontation and a final settling of accounts between Russia and the West. They could be Russian, German, British or French, Polish or Baltic, non-European or even non-human, some of those AI agents gone rogue. They could be officially sanctioned by one or more leaders or they could be acting in their own volition, as individuals or small groups that are politically, ideologically, economically, religiously, culturally and/or otherwise motivated. What such actors certainly bet on is that the current situation is perfect for their provocations to have an effect, as no leader can be seen to be taking a step back but rather they have to outbid their opponents in severity and vindictiveness.
Things could and still can be handled differently, though. There are de-escalation tools that are not being used and could be, even at this late hour. As in the case of the Nord Stream pipelines and their destruction some years ago, there could have been a neutral fact-finding mission and some sort of arbitration panel that could be given the task to sort out what actually happened and attribute responsibility, complete with compensation and other legal sanctions, barring war. It was not done then but evidence has emerged pointing in a direction different than the one initially assumed; too late to help with any de-escalation, though. Such methods should start being introduced… yesterday, before it is too late. Fact-finding and adjudication panels can be run by multilateral bodies like the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) or the United Nations, especially under a hopefully braver and more proactive new UN Secretary-General.
As events are cascading to a point of no return, with a new Great War looming, maybe now is the time, possibly the last chance, to return to diplomatic measures of de-escalation and re-engagement for good. Instead of converting the intense strain that all sides feel to a significant extent, in their external affairs and domestically, into a desperate brawl for heroic self-aggrandizement and mutual self-destruction, let them take a step back, allow each other a face-saving exit from the current impasse, and start focusing on a future architecture of peaceful co-existence that respects the vital interests, resilience and well-being of all.
Dr. Georgios Kostakos, a former UN Secretariat official, is Executive Director of the Brussels-based Foundation for Global Governance and Sustainability (FOGGS) and a Research Associate of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
