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The political establishment’s annual appearance on the podium and before the cameras at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) serves as something of a season opener. To be followed by polls, candidate rosters and predictions, with the various party generals marshaling their forces for the battles ahead.

But this time round, the new season being kicked off by the TIF is an election year. So the policy pledges are laser-focused.

Their primary target is undisputed and acknowledged by all: the middle class.

Traditionally, this is the constituency that decides elections, and not only in Greece: it’s the rule across the whole of democratic Europe.

So the Prime Minister’s keynote announcements are expected to prioritize the middle class, with the remaining party leaders following suit.

Even Alexis Tsipras—who during his previous term in office showed little regard for a segment of the populace that is both productive and moderate.

The issue, however, is not one of intent. The real challenge lies in defining the middle class, decoding it, and engaging in meaningful dialogue with it—both socially and politically.

It is hardly a coincidence that everyone has a definition of their own to which they stubbornly cling.

Nor is it by chance that all the research points, in broad strokes, to a demographic that is educated, economically active, and socially engaged.

Will the middle class decide the election once again? I cannot say for sure. Yet the emphasis it is receiving from virtually every political force strongly suggests it will.

Of course, the Prime Minister will do some groundwork in his speech, though his rivals will either precede him or follow close behind.”.

Additional tax relief will obviously take center stage. But is that enough?

Earnings are being sucked into the “black hole” of the cost of living crisis right now, and easing the tax burden won’t boost them in real terms.

Close behind come public services, which remain a long way from satisfactory, even where they have improved.

I highlight these two areas—incomes and public services—because, according to every poll, they represent the key pressure points for the middle class.

They are the issues that will largely define the terms of the electoral contest.

All the more so because today’s middle class—a product of the period since the return to democracy in 1974—is neither devoid of political sensibilities nor indifferent to the quality and tone of public debate.

They may not be ideologues. But they do voice an aspirational vision for the country, their children, and themselves.

I don’t know who will ultimately succeed in engaging them. But I will not be surprised if that party emerges victorious from this election.