A new international study published in The Lancet warns that nearly 80 million women worldwide are expected to experience infertility by 2036, up from an estimated 53.6 million in 2023. Researchers say the sharpest increase will occur among women aged 35 to 39, reflecting the natural decline in both the number and quality of eggs as women age. These biological changes reduce fertility, increase the risk of miscarriage and lower the success rates of assisted reproductive technologies.
The study’s authors argue that population ageing and shifting socioeconomic trends are driving a growing number of women to face age-related infertility, making it an increasingly significant public health issue. The research, conducted by scientists in China, draws on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 project, covering 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2023. It found that infertility rates are rising most rapidly in higher-income nations.
Researchers attribute the trend not only to biology but also to profound social and demographic changes. Across middle-income and fast-growing economies, people are marrying and starting families later in life, while more women are attempting to conceive after the age of 35 or even 40. At the same time, greater awareness of fertility issues has encouraged more couples to seek medical help. Yet in many countries, fertility testing and treatment remain expensive or difficult to access, leaving demand well above the capacity of available services.
Rocio Nunez Calonge, a biologist and fertility specialist who was not involved in the study, said tackling the rise in age-related infertility requires more than expanding access to assisted reproduction. She argued that governments must also address the social factors behind delayed parenthood, including work-life balance, economic security and stronger institutional support for women who choose to have children at a younger age.
The researchers also stress that infertility is not solely a women’s issue. It is estimated to affect around one in six people at some point in their lives, while between 8% and 12% of couples of reproductive age worldwide experience difficulties conceiving.
