Metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a condition closely linked to obesity and elevated blood sugar levels, is projected to affect up to 1.8 billion people worldwide by 2050, according to a new international study.
The findings come from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and have been published in the journal Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. Researchers describe MASLD as one of the fastest-growing health threats globally, driven by rising rates of obesity, diabetes, and metabolic disorders.
Rapid Global Rise in Cases
Today, an estimated 1.3 billion people are living with MASLD, accounting for roughly 16% of the global population. This represents a dramatic increase of 143% over the past three decades. In 1990, around 500 million people were affected, highlighting the scale of the disease’s growth.
If current trends continue, cases are expected to rise by a further 42% by 2050, placing significant pressure on healthcare systems worldwide.
Key Risk Factors Identified
The study, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, identifies high blood glucose as the primary driver of disease burden. This is followed by high body mass index (BMI) and smoking.
Researchers also highlight important demographic patterns. MASLD is more common in men and reaches its highest prevalence among people aged over 80. However, the largest absolute number of cases is now found in younger age groups, particularly men aged 35–39 and women aged 55–59.
Regional Trends and Growing Impact
While regions such as North Africa and the Middle East are disproportionately affected, Western countries are also experiencing significant increases.
In the United Kingdom, prevalence has risen by 33% since 1990—the highest increase in Western Europe. Australia has seen a 30% rise, while the United States has recorded an increase of 22% over the same period.
A Growing but Manageable Health Burden
Despite the sharp rise in diagnoses, the overall health impact measured in years of life lost has remained relatively stable. Researchers suggest this may be due to improved treatment, allowing patients to live longer and be diagnosed earlier in the disease process.
However, the accumulation of cases means a growing share of the global population is now at risk of serious complications, including liver cirrhosis and liver cancer.
Call for Urgent Action
Because MASLD is strongly linked to lifestyle factors such as diet, obesity, and physical inactivity, experts stress the importance of early detection and prevention. Symptoms may include persistent fatigue and abdominal discomfort, though the disease often progresses silently.
The study’s authors conclude that addressing MASLD must become a global public health priority, calling for targeted health policies and awareness campaigns to reduce future disease burden and prevent a looming healthcare crisis.
