Greece is heading into the winter with little sign that the cost-of-living crisis is easing, as persistent energy costs, higher raw-material prices and disruptions to food supply chains continue to put pressure on households and businesses.
Although the government has made reducing supermarket prices a priority, with measures aimed at lowering shelf prices from Sept. 1, market indicators are pointing in a different direction. Energy prices, geopolitical tensions and climate-related pressures are keeping the cost of living elevated, while disruptions to global supply chains threaten to push up the price of basic foods.
For Greek households, the problem is compounded by the fact that prices never returned to their pre-2022 levels after the previous energy crisis. Any new increases are therefore being added to an already elevated cost base.
Energy remains at the heart of inflation
Energy is at the center of the latest inflationary pressures.
Natural gas prices at Europe’s benchmark TTF hub remain above 50 euros per megawatt-hour, according to the report, driven by continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Sustained prices at those levels directly increase the cost of electricity generation.
At the same time, the summer of 2026 has been among the hottest in recent years, with repeated heat waves and widespread water shortages creating additional pressure on the electricity market.
The combination has had a double effect. Electricity demand has surged as households and businesses rely heavily on air conditioning, while heat and limited water resources have affected the operation of key generation facilities, including hydropower plants and cooling systems at thermal power stations. Under normal conditions, these facilities help contain electricity prices.
The report cites UBS as forecasting that Brent crude prices will remain around $80 per barrel at least through the fall of 2027. It says the investment bank has pointed to stronger-than-expected global demand, particularly from emerging economies, prompting repeated upward revisions by the International Energy Agency.
The result, according to the analysis, could represent a new price equilibrium in which cheap energy is no longer the norm.
The impact is already visible at gas stations. According to the latest available figures from Greece’s Fuel Price Observatory, regular unleaded gasoline has exceeded 2 euros per liter, while diesel prices are also under pressure.
If high oil and natural gas prices persist, their impact will extend beyond household energy bills. Higher costs are likely to feed into transportation, food production, services and, ultimately, consumer prices.
Food supply chains face new pressure
Food supply chains represent a second major source of concern heading into the winter.
The report says escalating military operations in the Black Sea, including attacks on port infrastructure, commercial vessels and grain storage silos, have sharply reduced the flow of inexpensive wheat to international markets.
The effects are already being reflected in futures markets. Wheat prices on the Chicago commodities exchange have risen more than 17% since the beginning of July, approaching three-year highs.
The increase is gradually being passed on to domestic flour and animal-feed industries. Higher raw-material costs are expected to be fully reflected on store shelves during the fall, affecting bread, baked goods and pasta, as well as livestock production and the prices of meat and dairy products.
Oxford Economics estimates that continuing geopolitical disruptions could affect as much as 86 million tons of grain exports this year, equivalent to about 17% of global grain exports. It also estimates that international food prices could rise by 11.8% this year.
The risk of a broader inflation spiral
The threat to the Greek economy extends beyond higher electricity and food bills.
Persistently high energy costs can spread throughout transportation, manufacturing and services. Businesses facing higher operating expenses may pass those costs on to consumers, while workers whose purchasing power is being eroded seek higher nominal wages.
The interaction could fuel a wage-price spiral, giving inflation more persistent and structural characteristics.
That prospect is also making the European Central Bank more cautious. Expectations for a rapid easing of interest rates are receding, according to the analysis.
Keeping interest rates at restrictive levels for an extended period would maintain high borrowing costs for households and businesses, potentially limiting investment and economic growth.
No immediate relief in sight
The indicators and analyses point to a period of prolonged uncertainty for the Greek economy, as external pressures combine with domestic structural weaknesses.
The winter ahead offers little indication of an automatic correction in prices. Instead, international energy and commodity markets continue to point to elevated costs.
For Greek households and businesses, adapting to a new environment of persistently high prices is emerging as one of the central challenges for economic stability in the years ahead.
