The specter of an energy crisis and inflation is being stirred by the war in the Middle East. Both the government and the market are on high alert, monitoring the situation closely, as no one can know the full extent the conflict may reach. The economic team has already defined the “red lines” of energy risk.

The government’s alert threshold is set at $100 per barrel for crude oil and €60 per megawatt-hour for natural gas. If international prices move above these levels, Athens will consider activating a package of emergency measures to limit the impact on the economy.

The experience of previous energy crises has now created a… toolkit of interventions, ready to be deployed if conditions require. The fear of a new wave of inflation is what drives the economic team. Fuel price increases could act as a “multiplier” across the economy, affecting everything from the cost of transporting food to service prices.

The Battle

At the same time, the government is preparing market interventions and price controls at retail. Development Minister Takis Theodorikakos has already warned that no form of profiteering will be tolerated, emphasizing that the prepared measures aim to protect the economy, society, and especially consumers.

The focus is on both fuel stations and retail businesses, where there is a risk that cost increases could be passed excessively quickly to final prices. The inspection mechanism of the new Independent Authority for Consumer Protection is already on high alert, conducting market checks. Experience from previous crises has shown that even a small increase in fuel prices can trigger broader price hikes.

What the Market Fears

Greek businesses are also on heightened alert and approaching the situation with particular caution. Sources in retail estimate that, for now, there is no significant upward pressure on shelf prices. However, the situation could change if the conflict in the Middle East is prolonged.

Businesses are closely monitoring two main factors: the duration of the crisis and the trajectory of energy prices. If energy costs rise significantly, production and transport pressures will gradually pass on to the final prices of goods.

In industry, uncertainty is even greater. Sector executives point out that the real risk lies not only in rising energy prices but also in the potential multiplier effect on the global economy. The chain of impacts could be unpredictable: higher production costs, more expensive transport, increased raw material prices, and ultimately pressure on company profit margins. No one can yet estimate the full extent of the consequences.

Much will depend on whether the conflict remains geopolitically limited or spreads to more countries in the region. Experience in recent years has shown that geopolitical crises can quickly evolve into economic crises. For Greece, the major challenge is to contain the effects before they turn into a new wave of price increases.