The director of Greece’s Geodynamic Institute has addressed concerns about earthquake risk in the Corinth Gulf, following recent seismic activity and renewed public discussion about the possibility of a major future quake in the region.
Speaking to Greek public broadcaster ERT, seismologist Vassilis Karastathis commented on both recent earthquakes in Greece and broader speculation about seismic hazards, emphasizing that scientific certainty about future large-scale events remains limited.
Ongoing seismic activity after recent quake
Karastathis referred to a recent 5.7 magnitude earthquake in Crete, noting that the aftershock sequence is developing in a typical way for the region but remains particularly intense.
He explained that the area has recorded a high number of aftershocks, including several strong ones, and that there is still no clear sign of a gradual decline in activity.
“At this stage we are not yet seeing a reduction in frequency, so we cannot be reassuring today,” he said, adding that such behavior is normal in the early phase of a seismic sequence.
Scientists estimate that it may take another one to two days before a clearer downward trend in activity becomes evident.
Karastathis also stressed that earthquakes of this magnitude are expected in the region of Crete, describing them as part of its known seismic behavior.
Caution over Corinth Gulf earthquake predictions
The discussion also turned to recent reports suggesting the possibility of a major earthquake in the Corinth Gulf in the coming years.
The Geodynamic Institute director urged caution, stating that such claims cannot be properly assessed without access to the underlying scientific studies and methodologies.
“We do not know the study on which these estimates are based. To evaluate such a prediction, it must be published and its methodology clearly understood,” he said.
He added that while modern scientific models are being developed internationally to study seismic risk, they remain at a research stage and are not capable of producing operational earthquake forecasts.
“There is currently no way to transform such data into reliable predictions of the exact time or magnitude of an earthquake,” he noted.
No unusual activity detected
According to Karastathis, available data do not indicate any abnormal seismic behavior in the Corinth Gulf region at present.
He acknowledged that the area is known for accumulated tectonic stress and that a long period may have passed without a major earthquake, but stressed that this alone cannot be used to forecast when the next event will occur.
Greece, he added, remains a highly seismic country where strong earthquakes are part of its natural geodynamic evolution.
“A magnitude 6 earthquake will eventually occur, especially in areas with a history of strong activity. This is certain, but it cannot be predicted in terms of timing,” he concluded.
