Russia is rapidly rebuilding its military capabilities in a bid to alter the balance of power in Europe, even though it does not plan to attack any NATO country in the near term, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said in a report released on Tuesday.
According to the annual assessment, Moscow has no intention of launching a military attack on a NATO member this year or next. Instead, it is focused on expanding its forces as European countries increase defence spending and rearmament efforts. Estonia, a NATO member bordering Russia, has been among the Kremlin’s most vocal critics and a strong supporter of Ukraine.
The head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, Kaupo Rosin, said Russia is deeply concerned that Europe could soon be capable of independent military action. He warned that Moscow’s objective is to “delay and hinder” Europe’s rearmament, which Russian leaders fear could make NATO countries militarily superior within two to three years.
Ammunition Stockpiles and Future Wars
The report highlighted a sharp increase in Russian ammunition production, saying output is expanding so quickly that Russia could stockpile weapons for future conflicts while continuing its war in Ukraine. Estonian intelligence also assessed that any potential attack on Estonia would involve drones operating simultaneously on land, in the air, and at sea across the entire country.
Russia, the US, and Sanctions
The intelligence service said the Kremlin still views the United States as its main global adversary, but is presenting a façade of cooperation in hopes of easing U.S. sanctions. According to the report, Moscow aims to exploit the new U.S. administration to restore bilateral relations and push for a settlement that would formalise Ukraine’s defeat.
Despite what Estonia described as an “illusory thaw,” Russia’s strategic goals remain unchanged. The report said Moscow continues to seek the marginalisation of the United States and NATO and to reshape Europe’s security architecture according to its own interests.
China Factor
Estonia’s assessment also pointed to closer ties between Russia and China. Beijing views Moscow as a useful partner in weakening Western influence and as a reliable energy supplier should a conflict over Taiwan trigger sanctions or a maritime blockade. The two countries are also cooperating in military technology research.
