President Trump has moved markets with sudden shifts in policy, from tariff U-turns to military strikes. On several occasions, unusual trades hit the tape ahead of his announcements.
Most recently, there was a mysterious flurry of trading activity in oil and S&P 500 futures about 15 minutes before Trump de-escalated tensions with Iran with a Monday morning post on Truth Social, which sent oil prices tumbling and stocks rallying .
Critics of the president promptly inferred that someone was profiting from advance knowledge of the post. “Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D., Conn.) said on X.
There is no evidence of leaks or insiders making trades ahead of Trump’s post on Monday, or in any of the previous incidents. In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai said, “All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Still, some market veterans believe news is trickling out from Trump’s orbit ahead of official announcements. Here is a rundown of episodes where well-timed trades happened ahead of Trump-triggered swings:
March 23, 2026 : Early Monday, Trump announced in a Truth Social post that he was postponing strikes on Iranian power plants thanks to “productive” talks with Iran.
About 15 minutes before the post, a sudden burst of activity hit the oil-futures market. During the two-minute period from 6:49 a.m. to 6:51 a.m. ET, more than $760 million worth of Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil futures changed hands, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A similar burst of activity took place at the same time in S&P 500 futures.
There was no clear catalyst for the sudden spikes in trading volume. Oil prices dipped slightly during the 6:50 a.m. ET volume spike. After Trump’s post, oil immediately sank and stock futures soared.
Feb. 28, 2026 : Soon after U.S. and Israeli forces began to strike Iran, blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified a group of “ suspected insiders ” who made $1.2 million by wagering on a U.S. strike through Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market.
Most of the accounts had bet on a strike by Feb. 28, which turned out to be the exact date of the operation, Bubblemaps said. The firm later found evidence linking one of them to another Polymarket account that had made profitable bets on the U.S. striking Iran’s nuclear facilities last year.
Earlier this week, Polymarket said it was beefing up its rules against insider trading, prohibiting users from trading on stolen confidential information or illegal tips.
Jan. 2, 2026: At 10:46 p.m. ET, Trump ordered the U.S. military to proceed with its operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro . The world would learn about the mission later that night, when explosions hit Caracas.
A series of Polymarket trades raised suspicions that someone cashed in on advance knowledge of the operation. In late December and early January, a mystery trader placed about $34,000 on Venezuela-related bets, mainly on contracts that would pay off if Maduro lost power by the end of January. The final wager was placed at 9:58 p.m. ET on Jan. 2, less than an hour before Trump’s order.
The trader walked away with more than $400,000 in profits. Their identity remains unknown. A few days later, some Democrats in Congress introduced a bill to ban federal officials from using nonpublic information to trade on prediction markets.
Oct. 10, 2025: Upset about China’s rare-earth restrictions, Trump dialed up his trade threats, culminating in a late afternoon Truth Social post in which he vowed an additional 100% tariff against Beijing. Stocks slid.
This time, well-timed trades took place on Hyperliquid, a cryptocurrency exchange. Ahead of the selloff, two accounts placed enormous bets that bitcoin and ether would fall. By day’s end, the positions were closed for $160 million in profit .
The last of those trades was placed just one minute before Trump’s post, prompting speculation that somebody had been tipped off. But there were other explanations. For instance, the bets could have been a reaction to the Chinese export restrictions that prompted Trump’s tariff threat. October’s windfall also proved fleeting: In January, one of the Hyperliquid accounts lost more than $128 million on an ill-fated bet that ether would rise.
April 9, 2025: At 1:18 p.m. ET, Trump abruptly reversed the brutal stock-market selloff unleashed a week earlier by his “Liberation Day” tariffs. In a Truth Social post, he announced a 90-day pause to tariffs on dozens of countries. The S&P 500 surged.
Market watchers zeroed in on trading activity from just after 1 p.m. ET in options tied to a popular exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, known by its ticker SPY. The trades were in short-dated, bullish call options that would pay off only if the index closed sharply higher that afternoon. “Insane, someone knew,” tweeted Unusual Whales, a data provider whose X account often highlights activity with hallmarks of potential insider trading.
Some traders suggested a more mundane explanation: The options transactions came just after a 1 p.m. ET auction for 10-year Treasury notes went off better than expected, easing worries that the turmoil was spreading into U.S. government debt.
Still, Democratic lawmakers called for an investigation . The president’s allies dismissed their concerns; one called it an example of “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
Write to Alexander Osipovich at alexo@wsj.com and Jack Pitcher at jack.pitcher@wsj.com
