The United Nations’ weather and climate agency has warned that the El Niño climate pattern is expected to strengthen rapidly into a powerful event between July and September, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather across the globe.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is already underway and is forecast to intensify significantly over the coming months, prompting countries to prepare for its far-reaching impacts.
El Niño is a naturally occurring global climate phenomenon driven by fluctuations in wind patterns and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It typically develops every two to seven years, lasts between nine and 12 months, and alternates with its cooler counterpart, La Niña, as well as periods of neutral conditions.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO forecasts a “rapid evolution into a strong El Niño event during July–September.” The organization classifies El Niño episodes into four categories, ranging from weak to very strong, and expects the current event to reach the second-highest intensity level.
The Geneva-based agency said the latest forecast models from leading climate centers consistently point to a marked warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies are projected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions, underscoring the event’s growing strength.
Forecasters expect El Niño to continue intensifying through the Northern Hemisphere autumn, influencing weather patterns across much of the world. At the same time, the Atlantic Ocean is also expected to remain warmer than average.
The previous El Niño contributed to 2023 becoming the second-warmest year on record, while 2024 set a new global temperature record, with average temperatures reaching approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial (1850–1900) levels.
“El Niño conditions have already developed and are expected to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. “This will increase the risk of droughts, heavy rainfall, heatwaves over land, and marine heatwaves in many regions.”
The WMO said it is stepping up support for early warning systems to help countries better prepare for the impacts of the phenomenon, particularly in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and public health.
