2025 was the third-warmest year ever recorded worldwide, edging close to the back-to-back records set in 2024 and 2023, according to separate announcements by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service and the U.S.-based Berkeley Earth institute.
For the first time, the global average surface temperature over a three-year span exceeded the pre-industrial benchmark (1850–1900) by more than 1.5°C—the most ambitious threshold set under the Paris Agreement adopted a decade ago to curb global warming.
“The sharp rise observed between 2023 and 2025 was extreme and points to an acceleration in the pace of global warming,” Berkeley Earth scientists said.
Climatologists, policymakers and UN officials now largely acknowledge—publicly since last year—that the 1.5°C threshold will be breached on a sustained basis, undermining the Paris Agreement’s central goal. With three consecutive years already above that level, Copernicus considers it likely that a lasting overshoot will be formally confirmed “by the end of this decade—more than ten years earlier than previously expected.”
The acceleration is all the more troubling as the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has stepped back from international climate cooperation since Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, prioritizing oil production over climate commitments.
A Scorching 2026 Ahead?
At the same time, efforts to cut emissions in wealthy nations are faltering. In France and Germany, emissions reductions slowed in 2025, while in the United States a surge in coal-fired power generation erased years of environmental gains.
“The urgency of climate action has never been greater,” said Mario Faccini, head of the Copernicus unit, during a press briefing.
There is little to suggest a reversal in 2026. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus’s climate service, expects next year to rank “among the five warmest on record,” potentially matching 2025.
If the warming El Niño phenomenon returns, “it could make 2026 a record year,” warned Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus’s climate service.
Records in Asia and Antarctica
In 2025, global temperatures averaged 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, down slightly from the 1.60°C record set in 2024, while masking sharp regional extremes in Central Asia, Antarctica and the Sahel, according to Copernicus data analyzed by AFP. Around 770 million people endured record heat, with no cold records reported worldwide.
The year brought a cascade of extreme events—from heatwaves and cyclones to violent storms and major wildfires across Europe, Asia and North America—made more intense or frequent by warming driven mainly by continued oil, coal and gas use. Scientists also warn that unforeseen factors may be amplifying the trend, including cleaner marine fuels introduced in 2020 that reduced cooling sulfur aerosols in the atmosphere.
Sources: Euronews, AFP
