The accelerating pace of climate change is fundamentally altering the conditions in which wildfires start and spread across the Mediterranean. Rising temperatures, more frequent extreme heat events, changing rainfall patterns and prolonged drought are expected to significantly alter both the geographic distribution and severity of wildfire risk over the coming decades.
Climate projections for the next 20 years indicate that many parts of Greece will face greater climate pressures, making it necessary to rethink how prevention policies are designed, how spatial planning is carried out and how climate change adaptation plans are developed.
The modern approach, reflected in guidelines from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the European Union, introduces the concept of climate risk, which results from the interaction of three key components: (a) climate hazard — essentially the probability and intensity of a natural phenomenon, such as wildfires, heat waves or floods, as it is intensified by climate change; (b) exposure, defined by the presence of people, settlements, infrastructure, ecosystems or economic activities in areas where the phenomenon may occur; and (c) vulnerability, meaning how susceptible those exposed elements are to the impacts and their ability to withstand, adapt and recover.
Consider, for example, two areas facing the same climate hazard from wildfires. The first contains a well-managed forest, while the second lies at the forest-settlement interface and has dense, dry vegetation. Although the climate hazard is the same, climate risk is higher in the second area because it is more exposed and vulnerable. This does not mean abandoning the first area in favor of the second, but rather that prevention measures should differ according to the level of risk.
Incorporating climate risk — as it is regularly reassessed — into existing long-term planning tools is expected to make them more useful by also taking into account future climate conditions, the structure and condition of vegetation, topography, land use, proximity to settlements and critical infrastructure, and the capacity of landscapes and communities to withstand, adapt and recover. This includes, for example, the presence and density of firebreaks, water reservoirs and fire stations; early warning systems and the removal of combustible vegetation; and the institutional organization of government and volunteer response mechanisms, among other factors.
In practical terms — as also illustrated by the map accompanying this article — areas can be identified and classified according to their level of climate risk from wildfires. Many of the areas affected by wildfires recently are classified as high risk.
A significant change is also needed in the geographic scale at which risk is assessed. Existing systems for evaluating and mapping wildfire risk are often based on administrative units, such as municipalities and regional units, or on the boundaries of local forestry authorities. However, this does not reflect actual variations on the ground, since climate hazards, vegetation conditions, moisture levels, terrain, land use, infrastructure and ecosystem vulnerability can vary over much smaller areas.
A modern climate risk assessment system should therefore be based on high-resolution spatial models, at a scale of roughly one square kilometer, so that differences between areas can be captured and prevention measures can be prioritized more precisely. The development of such tools is now supported by the use of big data, artificial intelligence and modern techniques for downscaling climate models. Similar approaches are being developed internationally in countries and regions with high wildfire exposure, including Spain and California.
Ultimately, no system, however advanced, can guarantee the complete elimination of wildfires. The goal of a modern risk-management model is not to promise “zero wildfires,” but to substantially reduce their impact by incorporating climate risk into climate change adaptation plans, spatial and urban planning — particularly Local Urban Plans — natural disaster management and civil protection more broadly.
Konstantinos Kartalis is a professor of Environmental and Climate Physics at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA) and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.
This article is based on the CLIMASPIN research project, carried out under the Greek Ministry of Education’s “Research Excellence Partnerships” program. The project was coordinated by NKUA, with the participation of the University of Thessaly, Thymio Papayannis and Associates, and geoinformatics company GET.
