A new study warns that within 110 years, the last Greek citizen may be born, marking the end of Greece’s ability to sustain its population through natural reproduction. Conducted by the European University of Cyprus, the study calls the country’s demographic decline the most severe crisis in its modern history.
The projection is based on the assumption that no effective countermeasures will be implemented—or that any measures taken will fail to reverse current trends.

The Projection

Using exponential decay models and Eurostat data, the study projects Greece’s population could fall below six million by 2100, under three million by 2150, and just 1.5 million by 2200. Births may drop to 22,000 annually by 2100, fall to 1,000 by 2135, and near zero by mid-century. Without major intervention, the final generation of Greeks may be born between 2110 and 2120, with the last natural birth likely between 2135 and 2148.

A Crisis with Many Roots

The report attributes this demographic freefall to low fertility, rapid aging, migration, job insecurity, weak family policies, and poor long-term state planning. It warns that, under both realistic and pessimistic scenarios, the country may reach the point of its last natural birth within the next century.

The Numbers Tell the Story

The fertility rate in Greece currently stands at just 1.3 children per woman—far below the replacement threshold of 2.1. Birth numbers have collapsed, falling below 85,000 in 2023, according to data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT).

The Consequences

This looming collapse goes beyond statistics—it threatens Greece’s social fabric. Schools are closing in rural areas, healthcare is strained by an aging population, and the pension system is faltering, with fewer than one worker supporting every 1.5 retirees.

The repercussions extend to housing markets, national defense, and even geopolitical stability in regions already teetering on the edge due to sparse population levels.

A Narrow Window for Hope

Yet, the study does not entirely abandon hope. It suggests that with well-designed and sustained policy interventions, the tide could still be turned. Europe offers examples of successful demographic stabilization, showing that, while the clock is ticking, it may not have run out—yet.