The rate of obesity growth is slowing down or stabilizing in most high-income countries over the past 45 years, but continues to surge in low- and middle-income nations. That is the finding of a new analysis of global trends by an international research team led by Imperial College London. In Greece specifically, the study finds that while obesity has increased considerably in recent decades, the rate of growth appears to be tapering off.
The study, published in the journal Nature, drew contributions from more than 1,900 researchers through the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration network, including scientists from universities and research centers across Greece. The researchers examined obesity growth rates as a primary metric across 200 countries and territories worldwide over more than four decades, from 1980 to 2024, analyzing 4,050 studies with weight and height measurements for over 232 million individuals aged five and older. The growth rate is calculated as the annual absolute change in obesity prevalence and is recorded in percentage points per year.
Obesity rates rose in nearly all countries studied over the period, but the trends vary considerably across different populations. In high-income countries such as those in Western Europe, North America, and Australasia, the rise in obesity rates has stabilized or slowed, despite the rapid increases recorded in the late 20th century. Across various Western European countries, obesity prevalence has plateaued at 11 to 23 percent for adults and 4 to 15 percent for children and adolescents.
Children First to Show Improvement
The slowdown in the rate of increase was observed first among school-age children. Denmark recorded the earliest documented deceleration for both boys and girls, around 1990. Other European countries followed, including Iceland, Switzerland, Belgium, and Germany, during the 1990s.
By the mid-2000s, the rate of obesity growth among school-age children and teenagers had begun to stabilize in most high-income countries, and in some it had even started to decline. Exceptions included children in Australia, Finland, and Sweden, where the obesity growth rate remained steady or accelerated.
A similar slowdown appeared roughly a decade later among adults in many of those same countries. In some nations, including France, Italy, and Portugal, the rate may have even started to fall.
In France, the obesity trend remained stable throughout the study period, with a low prevalence of 4 percent among boys and girls and 11 to 12 percent among men and women. Denmark and Japan also recorded low obesity rates.
In the United States, the obesity growth rate has stabilized among children and adolescents and has slowed among adults. Even so, obesity levels remain the highest in the high-income Western world and among the highest globally.
Greece in Detail
In Greece, obesity among both children and adolescents and adults rose substantially over recent decades, particularly between 2000 and 2010, but the rate of increase is now decelerating, according to Flora Bacopoulou, Professor of Pediatrics, Adolescent Medicine, and Clinical Pharmacology at the Medical School of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and chair of the Committee for the Assessment and Reimbursement of Human Medicines at the Ministry of Health, who participated in the study. She shared the following figures with the Athens-Macedonian News Agency (ANA-MPA):
Obesity in girls has risen steadily since 1980, with prevalence levels hovering around 9 percent, but the increase has slowed over the past decade (from 2010 to 2024). The rate of increase in this group is growing ever more slowly and is trending toward zero over the last ten years.
In boys, obesity has increased more sharply than in girls, reaching higher levels of around 14 percent, but prevalence is showing signs of stabilization over the past decade (2010 to 2024). The rate of increase also appears to be plateauing and is trending toward zero, suggesting that the rise has nearly stopped.
Among adult women in Greece, obesity has been rising steadily since 1980 and in recent years has reached levels of around 28 percent. The pace of that increase has been consistent, particularly during the 2000 to 2010 decade.
Among men, obesity has been climbing continuously since 1980, reaching levels of around 30 percent, though at a decelerating pace. The rate of increase has been trending downward in recent years.
Rising Rates in Lower-Income Countries
The picture looks very different in low- and middle-income countries. Despite some signs of progress, the report finds that obesity continues to grow at a rapid pace, particularly in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and island nations of the Pacific and Caribbean. In low- and middle-income countries, obesity prevalence among adults has reached 30 to 40 percent in parts of Central Europe, including Romania and the Czech Republic, and in Latin America, including Brazil.
Majid Ezzati, the study’s lead author and professor at the Imperial College London School of Public Health, addressed the findings at a global press conference: “We call obesity a global epidemic, but when we look at individual countries in detail, we find major differences in how obesity is changing. An interesting finding that does not fit the global epidemic narrative is that in some of the wealthier countries, mainly in Europe, there has been a stabilization of obesity trends, and for some decades there has been no significant increase among children and adolescents.”
Ezzati also noted that there are “early signs” that in some European countries, particularly among women, obesity may actually be declining, citing France and Spain as examples. “We now need to find out why some countries are doing much better than others and apply those lessons to stop the rise of obesity,” he added.
He was also careful to note that “it is too early to say whether the rollout of new obesity drugs has had a direct impact on entire populations, even though they are beneficial for individual patients who use them. Efforts should be made to make these medications more accessible to those who need them around the world.”
