Santorini’s volcano has a 13% probability of erupting within the next five years and approximately a 25% chance within the next decade, according to a new study by seismologist Gerasimos Papadopoulos.
The findings, presented at the annual conference of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna, mark the first attempt to estimate the volcano’s short-term eruption probabilities rather than projections spanning centuries.
To reach these conclusions, Papadopoulos analyzed every known volcanic eruption on Santorini from 197 BC to 1950 using advanced mathematical and statistical models. The research also incorporated eruptions that had not previously been included in historical analyses.
A New Approach to Forecasting Volcanic Activity
Santorini is one of the world’s most closely studied volcanic systems. The island’s famous Minoan eruption around 1600 BC is considered one of the most powerful volcanic events in human history and continues to attract scientific interest.
According to Papadopoulos, previous efforts to estimate future eruptions focused on long-term processes such as magma accumulation beneath the volcano or geological changes occurring over hundreds of years. His research instead sought to assess the likelihood of activity over much shorter timeframes.
The study compiled historical records and geological evidence of eruptions that occurred after the Minoan event. Researchers identified 14 small- to medium-sized eruptions between 197 BC and 1950, most of them inside Santorini’s caldera, along with one eruption at the nearby underwater Kolumbo volcano in 1650.
The analysis also included three previously unrecorded eruptions dated to 1572, 1667 and 1778.
Historical Data Reassessed
A key innovation of the study was evaluating the reliability of each historical eruption record. Events were graded on a scale from one to four, ranging from low confidence to near certainty. The size of each eruption was also recalculated using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), an internationally recognized eight-level scale for measuring eruption intensity.
Using this revised database, Papadopoulos applied two main statistical approaches. One assumed eruptions occur randomly over time, while more advanced models incorporated the influence of previous eruptions, effectively introducing a form of “memory” into the forecasting process.
The models considered most reliable produced the headline estimates: a 13% probability of an eruption within five years and roughly 25% within ten years.
Not a Repeat of the Minoan Eruption
Despite the relatively significant probabilities from a geological perspective, Papadopoulos stressed that the findings do not suggest a catastrophic eruption comparable to the ancient Minoan event.
He noted that the volcanic system has not completed the geological cycle required to generate an eruption of that magnitude, making such a scenario highly unlikely within the time horizon examined by the study.
The researcher described the results as an important scientific advance that could also prove valuable for civil protection planning and risk assessment.
Papadopoulos was recently awarded the Sergey Soloviev Medal by the European Geosciences Union in recognition of his contributions to innovative research on natural hazards around the world.
