A particularly strong and well-organized low-pressure system has developed over the past several hours in the area between Sicily, Tunisia, and Malta, and is now moving toward the Ionian Sea. According to satellite imagery and forecast data, the system’s rapid development is being fueled by the Mediterranean’s warm sea temperatures, giving it characteristics consistent with a Mediterranean cyclone, known as a “Medicane.”
Greece and Libya are at the center of the developing bad weather, with forecasts pointing to heavy rainfall, gale-force winds, and dangerous sea conditions, raising the risk of localized flooding in coastal and vulnerable areas.
Where the Storm Will Hit: Regional Forecast
On Tuesday, the southern Ionian, the Peloponnese, and gradually Crete will see cloud cover with local rain and scattered storms. By evening, the weather will be mostly confined to the Kythira–Crete area. Elsewhere, brief showers and isolated storms are expected in mountainous inland areas.
In Attica, temporarily increased cloud cover is expected, with temperatures ranging from 15 to 29 degrees Celsius. In Thessaloniki, cloud cover is forecast from the morning, with a chance of light rain in the afternoon and temperatures reaching up to 30 degrees. Meanwhile, concentrations of African dust are expected to decrease starting in the morning hours.
Forecast for the Coming Days
- Wednesday, September 16: Increased cloud cover at times over eastern Thessaly, eastern Central Greece, the southern Peloponnese, the Cyclades, Crete, the eastern Aegean islands, and the Dodecanese, with local rain and scattered storms over Crete and Kythira. Winds in the Aegean will reach up to 6 on the Beaufort scale.
- Thursday, September 17: Local rain and scattered storms are expected over Crete and the Dodecanese through the afternoon. Elsewhere in the country, light cloud cover, temporarily increasing around midday over inland and Ionian areas.
- Friday, September 18: Local rain and possible isolated storms are expected over the Ionian through midday, with afternoon showers over mountainous inland areas.
How Mediterranean Cyclones (Medicanes) Form
From an atmospheric dynamics standpoint, medicanes typically begin as a disturbance in the mid-to-upper troposphere with a cold core. High sea surface temperatures then add energy to the system through heat and moisture transfer. Under the right conditions, the low-pressure system develops a symmetric structure, intense storm activity, and a warmer core, resembling tropical cyclones and capable of triggering severe weather events despite the Mediterranean basin’s relatively limited size.
