Climate change is raising the odds of dangerous heat at the 2026 World Cup, according to a new Climate Central analysis that found 97 of the tournament’s 104 matches are now more likely to be played in temperatures hot enough to hurt player performance.
Nearly half the matches, 49 in all, carry at least a 50% chance of heat that can impair performance. In 26 of those, climate change has pushed that likelihood up by at least 10 percentage points.
The biggest jump comes in the June 26 match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara, Mexico. The 70% chance of performance-impairing heat in that game is 37 percentage points higher than it would be without climate change.
Yannis Pitsiladis, director of the Centre for Sport and Exercise Medicine and a professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, said the threat is well documented. “The risk from high temperatures during the World Cup is real and backed by scientific evidence,” he said. “In several of the cities hosting matches, environmental conditions could be such that they place players under significant heat stress.”
Heat puts added strain on the heart, makes it harder for the body to regulate its temperature and can take a toll on both physical and mental sharpness, Pitsiladis said.
He argued that the effects may reach beyond fitness. “Football is not only a physical sport but a decision-making sport,” he said. “So the more interesting question is whether the heat changes the game itself, whether it makes it slower, whether it leads to different strategies, to more substitutions. The climate crisis will not stop football, but it may affect how it is played, and the World Cup now underway is a unique opportunity to answer these questions.”
