A new joint report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office warns that average global temperatures will reach record levels over the next five years, bringing more frequent and extreme heat waves, with the Arctic warming at a significantly faster rate than the rest of the planet.

The annual report, which provides regional forecasts for temperatures and rainfall, projects that annual global average temperatures near the Earth’s surface will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

“There are very clear signs that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature continues to rise,” Melissa Seabrook, a researcher at the UK Met Office, told Reuters.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments committed to trying to prevent the rise of global average temperatures beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold at which extreme weather events appear to increase in intensity.

The Record for the Hottest Year Was Broken in 2024

The report states it is highly likely that the global average air temperature near the Earth’s surface will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

It also predicts that at some point between 2026 and 2030, annual global average temperatures will surpass those of the hottest year on record, 2024, when they exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the very first time.

Temporarily breaching the 1.5°C threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, since it refers to a long-term average spanning more than 20 years rather than a single-year exceedance, Seabrook said. She added, however, that as the world approaches this limit, it is increasingly likely to surpass it more often.

“The science is very clear that the window for keeping global average temperatures at 1.5°C is closing fast,” Seabrook added.

More Extreme Weather Events

Arctic winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are projected to rise more than 3.5 times the global average over the next five years, reaching roughly 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 reference baseline, according to the report.

Arctic sea ice is expected to shrink in March over the coming five years in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.

Arctic warming could also disrupt weather systems and trigger more intense weather events, particularly across the northern portions of the planet, Seabrook explained.

Wetter conditions are also forecast for the Northern Hemisphere over the next five winters, along with wetter spells in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia, and the Sahel region from May through September, while drier conditions are expected in the Amazon during the same period.

A strong El Niño event is also forecast for this coming winter, one that could persist into 2027 and push global temperatures to potentially record levels as the Pacific Ocean warms, according to Seabrook.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasting nine to twelve months.

A “Rare Heat Wave Episode”

Meteorologist Thodoris Kolydas described what is unfolding in Northwestern Europe as a rare heat wave episode for the month of May.

He noted that the event stands as one of the most characteristic examples of how atmospheric circulation and a warmer climate background can work together to produce historical records. A powerful anticyclonic ridge at 500 hPa, warm advection at 850 hPa from North Africa, and prolonged sunshine created a heat accumulation mechanism over Western and Northwestern Europe.

For Greece, he explained, the picture is milder and different. The country does not appear to be at the center of a comparable heat dome. It sits more on the periphery of the warm zone and is expected to gradually transition into a hotter period, especially after early June.

Four Italian Cities Placed on Red Alert

Italy’s Ministry of Health placed the major cities of Rome, Florence, Bologna, and Turin on red alert, or the highest risk level 3, due to the heat wave sweeping across Europe this week.

Temperatures, unusually high for late May, are expected to reach up to 33°C in Turin, an alpine city in northern Italy, 32°C in Florence and Bologna (with a felt temperature of 35°C), and 31°C in Rome (with a felt temperature of 33°C) in south-central Italy.

Level 3 indicates “an emergency condition (heat wave) likely to have negative health effects on active individuals without underlying conditions, and not just on high-risk groups such as the elderly, very young children, and people with chronic illnesses,” the Ministry of Health explained.

This highest alert level is activated when high temperatures and unusual meteorological conditions persist for three or more consecutive days.

Since May 25, the Italian Ministry of Health has been publishing a daily heat bulletin assessing conditions in 27 Italian cities, with 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour forecasts.

An unprecedented early-season heat wave has been battering European countries, including France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, since the start of the week. This is the result of a “heat dome,” a zone of high pressure trapping hot air from North Africa across Western Europe.

According to the prevailing scientific consensus, human-caused climate change is intensifying extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods.

Heat Wave Could Cost Germany Up to $131 Billion by 2030

Germany is facing a massive economic blow from the climate crisis. According to a new analysis by Allianz Trade released today, extreme heat waves could cost the country up to $131 billion between 2026 and 2030 if the high-temperature patterns recorded over the past decade are repeated. This development threatens to shrink domestic economic output by up to 3% of GDP by 2030, placing Germany at the European average but firmly on the losing side of climate change.

Rising temperatures are no longer merely an environmental problem but a direct threat to business and investment, sharply cutting productivity and driving up energy costs. According to data from Allianz Trade, headquartered in Hamburg, worker productivity declines by roughly 3% for every degree Celsius above the 30°C threshold. At the same time, cooling demands push energy costs up by roughly 1.2% for each additional degree of heat.

This phenomenon is also rattling Germany’s public finances. Prolonged heat undermines fiscal balance by reducing tax revenues by 0.7% annually and burdening the German fiscal balance by roughly 0.9% of GDP each year.

Although Southern Europe remains the hardest-hit region on the continent, the analysis underscores that other traditionally warmer regions outside Europe have demonstrated far greater resilience and adaptability to extreme heat. In that light, Allianz Trade concludes that the ability of economies to adapt to new climate realities is no longer an optional policy choice, but one of the most decisive factors determining their global competitiveness in the years ahead.

Deaths in France, Britain, and Ireland

The extreme heat wave battering Western and Northern Europe has claimed the lives of at least 14 people in Great Britain, Ireland, and France, with most deaths due to drowning.

In England and Ireland, seven fatalities were recorded, including several teenagers aged 12 to 15 and a 60-year-old man, who lost their lives in rivers, lakes, and the sea while trying to cool off or help relatives who were in danger.

At the same time, seven more deaths occurred in France, where temperatures exceeded 34°C, with five people drowning and two dying of heatstroke. An additional ten citizens are hospitalized in critical condition, with authorities remaining on high alert for the days ahead.

UN Sounds the Alarm

The heat wave that has struck parts of Europe in recent days represents a “stark reminder” of the devastating consequences of climate change, declared the UN’s top climate official, stressing the urgent need to accelerate the transition to clean energy sources.

“This latest heat wave in Europe is a stark reminder of the spiral of consequences of the climate crisis, both at a human and economic level. The main culprit is the planet’s dependence on burning coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as deforestation,” said Simon Stiell to AFP.

“Many other regions of the world are also severely affected, such as India and other parts of Asia. The science is clear: human-caused climate change is making these heat waves more frequent and more extreme,” he added.