DUBAI—The Iranian regime, decapitated in the first hours of the U.S.-Israeli campaign that started on Saturday, has responded by striking at least nine countries across the Middle East, unleashing a truly regional war.
The apparent calculation was that, by targeting rich Persian Gulf monarchies that hold sway with the Trump administration, Tehran could force Washington and Israel into a rapid de-escalation.
Iran’s expectation was that, by squeezing oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting air traffic, it would cause unbearable pain to the Gulf nations that depend so much on expatriate workers, tourism and overseas trade.
So far, this calculus seems to have backfired. Gulf states, rattled by volleys of Iranian drones and missiles targeting their hotels, ports and airports , are concluding the Iranian peril must be confronted. Rather than seeking an offramp, the prevailing mood in the Gulf—at least for now—is that the Iranian regime can’t be allowed to get away with this unprecedented onslaught on its neighbors.
Debris lies at the site of a fatal Iranian missile strike, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Beit Shemesh, Israel, March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
“Iran is coming to the countries and people of the Gulf and saying: ‘You know, I am actually your number-one threat.’ This has long-term implications, regardless of whoever is actually in power in Iran,” Anwar Gargash , diplomatic adviser to the United Arab Emirates president, said in an interview. “Targeting Gulf states is completely irrational, and very shortsighted.”
Iran has struck all six of the oil-rich Gulf Arab states, including Oman, which had mediated nuclear talks between Tehran and the Trump administration. It also hit Jordan, Iraq and Israel. At first, all the Gulf states publicly opposed the U.S.-Israeli assault on the Iranian regime, which has already resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the killing of many Iranian military and intelligence commanders.
The mood changed quickly once the brunt of the Iranian response targeted cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the U.A.E., Doha in Qatar, and Manama in Bahrain, inflicting widespread damage to infrastructure and civilian casualties. In the U.A.E. alone, Iran killed three people and injured 58 after firing 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones, most of which have been intercepted, according to the Defense Ministry.
Smoke billows from Zayed port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026. Picture taken with phone. REUTERS/Abdelhadi Ramahi TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
“Many people in the Gulf woke up Saturday pissed off at the United States and Israel, and went to sleep pissed off at Iran,” said William Wechsler , director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council in Washington and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense.
Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., which were engaged in an acrimonious diplomatic quarrel until the weekend, put their disagreements aside for now as they showed a united front against Iran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that the escalating conflict wasn’t Iran’s fault and that if the Gulf states and other Middle East neighbors were angry, “they should be angry at the United States and Israel.”
“They shouldn’t pressure us to stop this war,” Araghchi said. “They should pressure the other side.”
This approach worked in last year’s 12-day war, when limited Iranian strikes on Qatar led to the end of hostilities. “The Iranian strategy has been—if you can’t reach your main enemy, hit his allies, so that they pressure him,” said Nikolay Kozhanov , a specialist on Iran at Qatar University. “Iran was sure that this psychological pressure works, that by scaring the Arab monarchs it can succeed. But, it looks like, this time around, the situation may be different.”
A missile is intercepted as reported Iranian missiles are launched, as seen from Doha, Qatar, February 28, 2026. REUTERS/Saleh Salem
Indeed, for now at least, the opposite is happening. The leading Gulf states have rapidly steered their foreign policy from one of rapprochement with Iran to something verging on accepting that regime change in Tehran could be welcome. “Whether that regime will or will not survive is something that’s up to the Iranian people, they have to decide, they have to live with the outcome,” said Gargash of the U.A.E. “I don’t think it’s for us to decide.”
In Europe too, even though ties with the U.S. have frayed since President Trump ’s re-election, the initial apprehension over the attack on Iran has turned to tacit approval—especially after some Iranian missiles on Sunday were intercepted on their way to Cyprus, a member-state of the European Union.
Kaja Kallas , who leads the European Commission’s foreign and security policy, described the killing of Khamenei as “a defining moment in Iran’s history.”
“What comes next is uncertain. But there is now an open path to a different Iran, one that its people may have greater freedom to shape,” she added.
There is little appetite among European leaders to confront Trump over Iran, despite the fraying of the trans-Atlantic alliance over his claims on Greenland. To them, Europe’s priority is to ensure, with American cooperation, the survival of Ukraine and the deterrence of Russia.
“In Europe, we read the world through the lens of the Ukraine war, and for a good reason, as this is the most important issue for Europeans,” said Nathalie Tocci , director of the Institute of International Affairs in Rome.
Germany, France and the U.K., which didn’t participate in the initial strikes on Iran, said Sunday they “will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source.”
With the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran focused almost exclusively on air power, it is unclear how the Iranian regime, which drowned recent protests in blood, could actually be dislodged absent an uprising.
“The best we can hope for is the Venezuela scenario,” said Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi , referring to the cooperation that the remainder of Venezuela’s regime established with the U.S. after the seizure of that country’s ruler, Nicolás Maduro, in January.
“Frankly, it is a good scenario because that means the country stays together, you don’t have chaos, you don’t have civil war, you have a regime that has been neutered and modified,” Shihabi said.
A woman walks on the street following an Israeli and U.S. strike on Gandhi Hotel Hospital, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 2, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.
Meanwhile, he added, Iranian attacks on Gulf states have removed any embarrassment that these monarchies had in cooperating with the U.S. military campaign. It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and other Gulf states will just keep absorbing Iranian blows for long, officials in the region said. One possibility is to start targeting missile and drone launch sites inside Iran.
“Rather than being passively defensive, we can be more actively defensive,” said Gargash, the U.A.E. diplomatic adviser. “We have to look at what sort of conflict is shaping up. We also have our own capabilities, and the idea is that you want your response to be proportionate.”
On Sunday, the U.A.E. closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrew its diplomats from Iran.
With industries such as tourism, air travel, real estate and finance beginning to supplement oil revenue, Gulf economies can ill afford the likelihood of the war ending with the Iranian regime still in place, and able to threaten them again with drone and missile attacks, many officials say.
“Iran has crossed a line,” said retired British Air Marshal Martin Sampson , executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies—Middle East in Bahrain. “It is now existential for the Gulf states’ economic and social futures.”
Corrections & Amplifications undefined The U.S. seized Venezuela’s ruler, Nicolás Maduro, in January. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said he was seized in December. (Corrected on March 1)
