President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, U.S. officials said, targeting the regime’s coffers in a high-risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation Tehran has long refused.
In recent meetings, including a Monday discussion in the Situation Room, Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports. He assessed that his other options—resume bombing or walk away from the conflict—carried more risk than maintaining the blockade, officials said.
Yet continuing the blockade also prolongs a conflict that has driven up gas prices, hurt Trump’s poll numbers and further darkened Republicans’ prospects in the midterm elections . It has also caused the lowest number of transits through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began.
Since ending the major bombing campaign in an April 7 cease-fire, Trump has repeatedly walked back from escalating the conflict, opening space for diplomacy after earlier threatening to destroy the entirety of Iranian civilization. But he still wants to tighten the grip on the regime until it caves to his key demand: dismantling all of Iran’s nuclear work. On Monday, Trump told aides that Iran’s three-step offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and save nuclear talks for the final phase proved Tehran wasn’t negotiating in good faith , The Wall Street Journal reported.
For now, Trump is comfortable with an indefinite blockade, which he wrote Tuesday on Truth Social is pushing Iran toward a “State of Collapse.” A senior U.S. official said the blockade is demonstrably crushing Iran’s economy—it is straining to store its unsold oil —and sparked fresh outreach by the regime to Washington.
Trump’s decision represents a new phase of sorts of the war and highlights the fact that the president, who always seeks a quick and salable victory, is devoid of a silver bullet.
Unilaterally stopping the fight offers a quick exit to the conflict and relief to the U.S. and global economies. But Iran’s proposal last weekend would have allowed Tehran to set the terms of that off-ramp.
Restarting hostilities, meanwhile, would further weaken a battered Iran, but it would likely react by wreaking more havoc on Gulf energy infrastructure, bolstering the costs of the war. The blockade shrinks the Islamic Republic’s funds but commits U.S. forces to a longer deployment in the Middle East—with no guarantee the regime capitulates.
“Iran is calculating that its ability to withstand and circumvent the blockade outstrips the U.S. interest in preventing a wider energy crisis and potentially a global recession,” said Suzanne Maloney , an Iran expert and vice president of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program. “A regime that slaughtered its own citizens to silence protests in January is fully prepared to impose economic hardships on them now.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the U.S. has met Operation Epic Fury’s military objectives and that “thanks to the successful blockade of Iranian ports, the United States has maximum leverage over the regime” during negotiations to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. “The president will only accept a deal that protects the national security of our country.”
The lack of a clear, decisive pathway has some U.S. officials saying the eight-week conflict will likely end with neither a nuclear deal nor a resumption of the war, a sentiment first reported by Axios.
Trump is receiving conflicting advice about his next moves. Some officials and outside allies such as Sen. Lindsey Graham , a South Carolina Republican, are openly urging the White House to keep the pressure on Tehran. Others, including business leaders close to the president, worry that a shuttered Strait of Hormuz or more war would only hurt the economy, a potential political death knell heading into the November midterm elections.
That counsel rang in Trump’s ears Monday as he weighed Iran’s three-pronged proposal, officials said, which while imperfect, provided a potential de-escalation.
But the president and his national-security team agreed it would have stripped Washington of some of its leverage to extract nuclear concessions from Iran. The White House has consistently said any framework deal for a lasting peace must address Iran’s nuclear program, including putting timelines on restrictions of its work.
Officials say Trump isn’t currently willing to drop his demand that Iran, at a minimum, vows to suspend its nuclear enrichment for 20 years and accepts restrictions after that point.
“I am not surprised that he hasn’t taken the deal because it doesn’t address the nuclear issue at all,” said Eric Brewer, a former senior analyst for Iran in the U.S. intelligence community. “Why would you accept the Iranian deal while you are still waiting to see if you can cause some serious economic problems to Iran through this bet on the blockade?”
Despite expectations in the White House that U.S.-Iran talks would resume in Pakistan last weekend, the negotiations are stalled.
On Monday, Iran told mediators it would need a few days to consult with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei before presenting a modified proposal that could advance the peace talks with the U.S., people familiar with the matter said.
Regional mediators, however, remain skeptical that Iran’s updated offer would catalyze a breakthrough. Iranian officials continue to say that Washington must drop what they deem maximalist demands while maintaining its own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.
“Both sides seem to believe that they have calculated this right and that time is on their side,” said Nico Lange, director of Germany’s Institute for Risk Analysis and International Security and a former chief of staff at the German defense ministry.
Trump administration officials realize Tehran could try to disrupt efforts to maintain the current no-deal, no-war situation over a long period.
As the blockade bites, Iran might seek to force Washington into choosing between escalating the conflict or backing down and cutting a deal. Tehran could resume its attacks on regional energy production or target U.S. naval assets enforcing the blockade. Despite the destruction of its conventional navy, Iran can still spark flare-ups with U.S. forces.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio identified another complication in a Fox News interview that aired Monday: the internal battle for control in Iran that complicates any diplomatic effort.
“The hard-liners, with an apocalyptic vision of the future, have the ultimate power in that country,” Rubio said. “One of the impediments here is that our negotiators aren’t just negotiating with Iranians. Those Iranians then have to negotiate with other Iranians in order to figure out what they can agree to, what they can offer, what they’re willing to do, even who they’re willing to meet with.”
Write to Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com , Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com and Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com
