Greece’s economy grew by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, according to preliminary data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), offering an initial assessment of the country’s economic performance this year and capturing the impact of the first month of the war in the Middle East. On a quarterly basis, however, growth was more modest, reaching 0.2%.
The period was heavily influenced by developments in the Persian Gulf. The outbreak of war triggered higher energy prices and prompted both international and domestic institutions to revise their forecasts for economic growth and inflation in Greece.
The situation is particularly significant for the Greek economy, which remains highly dependent on imported fossil fuels, making the first-quarter data a crucial indicator of the country’s resilience amid mounting external pressures.
According to ELSTAT’s seasonally adjusted figures, Greece’s gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms increased by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, GDP expanded by 2.0%.
Based on non-seasonally adjusted data, GDP in volume terms also recorded annual growth of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
The main macroeconomic indicators showed mixed trends during the quarter. Total final consumption expenditure rose by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, reflecting continued support from domestic demand. By contrast, gross fixed capital formation, a key measure of investment activity, declined by 2.5%.
Exports of goods and services increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. While goods exports fell by 1.6%, services exports—an important pillar of the Greek economy—grew by 1.2%. Imports of goods and services declined by 0.6% overall, with goods imports down 1.9%, partially offset by a 4.2% rise in services imports.
Growth Forecasts Revised Lower
Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices, Greece’s Ministry of National Economy and Finance has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.4%. The Bank of Greece is even more cautious, projecting growth of 1.9% and citing the economic impact of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
