Moody’s has revised down its growth forecasts for the Greek economy, lowering its projections for both 2026 and 2027 to 1.7% from 2.1%, according to morning market reports by Optima Bank and Eurobank Equities. Despite the downgrade, the rating agency maintains that Greece’s economic fundamentals remain strong.
Moody’s expects Greek growth to continue being supported by robust absorption of European Union funds and private-sector investment. It also highlighted improvements in institutions and governance, as well as the strengthening of the banking sector, as key positive factors for the country’s economic outlook.
The revised forecasts come at a pivotal moment, as international rating agencies are set to resume their assessments of Greece this autumn. Market attention is increasingly focused on the country’s ability to withstand a more uncertain global environment, with geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs identified as the main external risks. Investment performance, fiscal policy, the pace of public debt reduction and overall economic growth are expected to be central areas of scrutiny in the coming months.
Rating agencies are also likely to place significant emphasis on the continuation of reforms, the preservation of fiscal discipline and the resilience of the Greek economy to external shocks.
Among Greece’s credit strengths, Moody’s cites its track record of reforms, low public debt servicing costs, limited borrowing needs and substantial primary budget surpluses. On the other hand, the country’s still-high debt burden remains a key weakness, while unfinished structural reforms, adverse demographic trends and growing climate-related risks continue to pose challenges.
Key Autumn Rating Dates
Attention is now turning to the upcoming ratings calendar. The first major review is scheduled for September 4, when DBRS is expected to reassess Greece’s credit profile and economic outlook.
Two weeks later, on September 18, Moody’s and Scope Ratings will publish their assessments. Moody’s currently rates Greece at Baa3 with a stable outlook, while Scope assigns a BBB rating with a positive outlook, leaving the door open to a potential upgrade.
The autumn review cycle will conclude with Standard & Poor’s on October 23 and Fitch Ratings on November 6.
