Gasoline prices in Greece are expected to remain elevated into September, with the national average price of unleaded gasoline already above €2 per liter and diesel also recording high prices.
The outlook has raised concerns over the cost of living as travelers return to urban centers and some fuel subsidies are set to expire.
Nikos Papageorgiou, president of the Attica Fuel Station Owners and Fuel Traders Association, outlined three possible scenarios for fuel prices in early September in comments to Greek broadcaster MEGA.
Three scenarios for September
The first scenario concerns fuel subsidies and whether they will continue.
Papageorgiou said Greece’s two refineries could continue subsidizing gasoline and diesel prices, which would have an impact on the final prices paid by consumers. He also said the government is expected to continue subsidizing diesel, based on what is currently being heard in the market.
The second scenario depends on the price of Brent crude oil.
Papageorgiou noted that refined-product prices for gasoline and diesel do not currently move mechanically in line with Brent crude prices, particularly in the case of diesel and other fuel products.
If Brent remains around its current level of about $90 per barrel, gasoline prices are expected to remain around €2 per liter, possibly slightly below that level.
The third and most severe scenario would emerge if oil prices rise to $100 per barrel.
In that case, Papageorgiou said gasoline could reach approximately €2.15 per liter, while diesel could rise to between €2.15 and €2.20 per liter.
“These are the three scenarios we expect to see from September,” Papageorgiou said, adding that the forecast could only be made over the short term.
“We don’t have the ability to say what will happen after two months,” he said.
Fuel costs remain under pressure
The elevated prices come as Greece approaches the end of the summer travel season, when the return of people from vacation destinations to major cities is expected to increase attention on household fuel costs.
At the same time, the potential continuation or withdrawal of subsidies will play a role in determining prices in the coming weeks.
According to Papageorgiou, the combination of refinery subsidies, government support for diesel and developments in global oil prices will determine how much consumers pay at the pump in September.
Taxes account for 60% of the final price
Fuel prices in Greece are also heavily affected by taxation.
About 60% of the final price of fuel consists of indirect taxes, including the Special Consumption Tax and value-added tax (VAT).
This means that both consumers and fuel station operators are affected by changes in fuel prices, according to the report.
