Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East are creating new risks for Greek exports, according to an analysis by Alpha Bank, which highlights growing pressures on international trade.
In its latest economic report, the bank identifies three main channels through which the crisis could affect export activity: rising production costs, disruptions in supply chains and the risk of reduced demand from key trading partners.
Strong performance faces new headwinds
Greek exports have shown significant growth over the past decade, driven largely by improved competitiveness and the strong performance of the manufacturing sector.
This upward trend is reflected in the increasing share of goods exports, which rose from 39% of total exports in 2009 to 48% in 2025. Notably, trade with the United States remained stable in 2025 despite tariff-related uncertainty.
However, the outlook for 2026 is more uncertain. Ongoing geopolitical instability and disruptions in global oil supply are expected to slow international trade, with continued uncertainty surrounding key maritime routes.
Exposure to the Middle East
Exports to 13 Middle Eastern countries accounted for 6.4% of Greece’s total exports in 2025, making the region an important—though not dominant—market.
At the same time, more than 57% of Greek exports are directed toward European Union countries, many of which are also facing energy-related pressures.
Among Middle Eastern markets, Lebanon, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were key destinations for Greek goods, with exports including a significant share of mineral fuels.
New opportunities through trade agreements
Despite the risks, new trade agreements by the European Union with countries such as India and Australia are expected to open additional opportunities for exporters.
Estimates suggest that EU exports to India could double by 2032, while trade with Australia may grow by up to 33% over the next decade. Greek businesses could benefit from these trends, provided they adopt targeted strategies to strengthen their international presence.
Government support measures
Recent government support measures aimed at industry, agriculture and fuel costs are expected to help sustain export activity by easing energy expenses, boosting production and facilitating transportation.
These policies are seen as crucial for maintaining the competitiveness of Greek exporters in a challenging global environment.
Key export sectors and trends
In 2025, Greek exports demonstrated resilience, reaching €48.7 billion, slightly down from €50 billion in 2024 due to a decline in petroleum product exports. Excluding this category, exports reached a record €37 billion.
Growth was recorded in several sectors, including:
- Food (+9.4%)
- Beverages and tobacco (+7.8%)
- Chemicals (+3.9%)
- Industrial products (+3.4%)
Meanwhile, exports of mineral fuels declined by nearly 15%, although they still account for the largest share of total exports at 26%.
Manufacturing continues to dominate Greece’s export landscape, accounting for roughly 70% of total exports, with the sector’s overall value nearly doubling over the past decade.
