Manchester City will walk out at Anfield on Sunday afternoon facing an opponent considerably more formidable than Liverpool.
For the first time since an independent commission found the club guilty of extensive breaches of Premier League financial regulations, City’s players must confront the extraordinary possibility that their club’s future could be decided as much in a disciplinary hearing room as on the football pitch.
Sunday’s 4.30pm encounter comes against the backdrop of what experts describe as the biggest financial scandal in Premier League history, with the prospect of a points deduction severe enough to relegate one of the world’s wealthiest football clubs.
But the repercussions now extend far beyond the Etihad Stadium.
The possibility that City’s Abu Dhabi owners could withdraw their investment has raised concerns about Britain’s economic relationship with the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces mounting questions over his comments about the club, as senior football figures express alarm about possible political interference.
For Manchester City, the question is no longer simply whether their reputation has been damaged. It is whether the foundations of their sporting and commercial empire can survive.
‘The biggest financial scandal in Premier League history’
Speaking exclusively to TO VIMA International Edition, Kieran Maguire, Associate Professor of Football Finance at the University of Liverpool Management School and national football expert, describes the magnitude of the findings in uncompromising terms.
“Given the period of time (9 years) and amount (over €1bn) this is the biggest financial scandal in PL history,” he says.
The independent commission found that Manchester City had engaged in a scheme through which substantial amounts of owner funding were disguised as sponsorship revenue between the 2009-10 and 2017-18 seasons.
According to Gregory Ioannidis, an international sports lawyer and Associate Professor of Clinical Sports Law at Sheffield Hallam University, the commission identified what it called a “Disguised Funding Scheme”.
Of £949.94 million recorded as commercial income from relevant sponsors, just £119.25 million represented genuine sponsor contributions, according to the commission’s findings.
The remainder, exceeding £830 million, was attributed to funding from the club’s ownership that had been presented as commercial income.
Ioannidis explains why this distinction is fundamental.
“Owner funding is excluded from the PSR and UEFA break-even calculations, while commercial revenue counts. Reclassifying equity as income therefore changes the regulatory result.”
The commission also concluded that City had made “concerted efforts to stop and frustrate the PL investigation”.
City, which has consistently denied wrongdoing, has appealed, describing the ruling as containing “clear material errors, of law, principle and fact” and calling it “unsafe”.
No punishment has yet been imposed.
Relegation, points deductions – and the possibility of expulsion
The immediate question confronting Manchester City is how severely the Premier League might punish them.
Maguire believes the consequences could be devastating.
“Likely sanctions are both financial and a very severe points deduction which may relegate City. Commission may recommend multi year penalties too.”
He points to the punishments previously imposed on Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Everton, while emphasising that those cases involved co-operation with the authorities.
Dr Jan Zglinski, Associate Professor at LSE Law School, believes the scale of City’s breaches makes previous disciplinary cases inadequate comparisons.
“To be proportionate, a sanction here would probably have to be large enough to effectively ensure relegation,” he tells TO VIMA International Edition.
“Stripping of titles is also possible. Expulsion from the league is being discussed and would require a special resolution backed by three quarters of clubs, but owners remain divided.”
The legal obstacles to some of these punishments remain significant. Ioannidis notes that the rules do not expressly provide for stripping clubs of titles, potentially exposing such a decision to legal challenge.
Speaking to TO VIMA International Edition, Stephen Hertog, Professor in Comparative Politics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, also considers relegation a realistic prospect.
“Wholesale expulsion seems less likely, but relegation is a possibility, at least if we consider how much more severe the identified infractions are compared to those of other clubs that got away with substantial points deductions.”
He adds: “Many other Premier League clubs seem to support severe sanctions, which would make them politically easier to issue.”
The appeal that could prolong the crisis into 2027
Even after the guilty verdict, Manchester City’s legal battle is far from over.
The club has already appealed the findings, but the process of determining sanctions is separate and any eventual punishment could itself be challenged.
Zglinski explains: “An appeal against the guilty verdict has already been lodged and should be decided within the next 12 weeks by a Premier League appeal board.”
He cautions that the wider process may continue considerably longer.
“Unlike in the first City case in 2020, there is no route to the Court of Arbitration for Sport this time. In theory the High Court could be asked to review the decisions. Either way, we are looking at well into 2027, possibly longer.”
Ioannidis stresses that the present appeal is a review rather than a fresh trial, with strict limitations on introducing new evidence.
He also warns against assuming that City’s successful appeal against UEFA sanctions in 2020 offers a reliable indication of what happens next.
“The 2020 outcome is therefore not a reliable guide to this appeal.”
Maguire identifies an additional danger: litigation from rival clubs.
“That could result in civil claims from individual clubs running into hundreds of millions of €.”
Such claims could open another chapter in the dispute, potentially involving clubs that believe they lost prize money, European qualification or commercial opportunities.
The Abu Dhabi question: could billions leave Britain?
The implications extend into an increasingly sensitive area of British foreign and economic policy.
Manchester City’s owners have transformed the club through enormous investment, while the United Arab Emirates has become an important source of capital for the wider British economy.
Hertog believes a withdrawal by City’s owners is a genuine possibility.
“There’s a scenario where the UAE owners would exit and Man City would lose a large part of its commercial revenue as well as backing from its owners.”
The consequences, he argues, could be exceptionally difficult to reverse.
“If relegation happens, there would be substantial damage that would be hard to recover from given the owners could not easily inject new funds without falling foul of FFP rules. Should the owners exit, the consequences would be even more severe.”
The possibility of wider diplomatic or investment repercussions has introduced an uncomfortable question: could Britain’s economic dependence on Gulf investment influence the football disciplinary process?
Hertog is unequivocal about what ought to happen, but less confident about political reality.
“They should be insulated, but in practice there is a chance that senior figures around the UK government will appeal for lower sanctions given the UK’s dependence on UAE investment.”
There is, however, an important distinction between concerns about future investment and evidence of an actual threat by the UAE to withdraw billions from Britain.
No such ultimatum is established by the material available to TO VIMA International Edition.
Burnham under fire: politics enters the football scandal
The political controversy intensified after Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the BBC he would be “really concerned” if Manchester City’s owners decided to sell.
According to British media, senior figures at several Premier League clubs were astonished by his remarks and expressed concerns about political interference in the appeals process.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has demanded that Downing Street release details of meetings between Burnham and senior figures associated with Manchester City.
The controversy has also placed renewed scrutiny on Burnham’s relationship with the club’s Abu Dhabi ownership during his period as mayor of Greater Manchester.
Burnham has rejected suggestions that he sought to minimise the findings.
“No I haven’t downplayed the seriousness of the findings. They are findings that need to be considered with great care and seriousness and then the process that considers them needs to be fully independent,” he said.
He added: “I think it’s incumbent on everybody now to let the process run its course.”
Burnham insisted that his remarks concerned the wider economic implications, not the club’s disciplinary responsibility.
“I think it’s important to separate the football issues from wider investment. The football issues have to be looked at fully and that is without question.”
Zglinski warns that political considerations must not determine the outcome.
“If wider diplomatic or economic interests could soften outcomes for powerful owners, the credibility of the whole disciplinary system would be undermined.”
Maguire is similarly dismissive of political intervention, arguing that it would be neither wise nor warranted, particularly given the potential reaction from supporters of the other 91 clubs across England’s top four divisions.
Could City’s biggest stars walk away?
For City’s players, the uncertainty raises questions about their contracts, careers and ambitions.
A severe points deduction, relegation or exclusion from European competition could fundamentally alter the attraction of remaining at the club.
Maguire identifies “potential good faith clauses for players to seek exit from club”.
However, the precise terms of City’s player contracts are not public, making it impossible to establish whether particular relegation or European qualification clauses could be activated.
Zglinski points towards one of European football’s most notorious scandals.
“It is hard to find meaningful historic parallels, but one is the Calciopoli scandal at Juventus in the mid-2000s, which led to a mass exodus of players and staff.”
He adds: “It is hard to imagine the current City squad playing in the Championship.”
The club’s manager, Enzo Maresca, has nevertheless projected confidence ahead of Sunday’s Liverpool encounter.
On Friday, just a few hours before the Sunday’s football match, asked whether City’s titles had been tainted, he replied: “Absolutely not.”
He defended his decision to join the club and expressed complete confidence in its leadership.
“The reason I joined this club is that I completely trust, 100%, the owner, the CEO, the sporting director, all the organisation. So I don’t have doubt about that.”
Maresca insisted that his players must concentrate on their immediate responsibilities.
“For me, the players – we can control just the pitch side, the football side. So we are focused on that.”
A verdict that could change English football forever
Beyond City’s immediate future lies a larger question about the credibility of English football’s financial governance.
Hertog believes substantial sanctions would fundamentally strengthen the deterrent effect of financial regulations.
“If there are severe sanctions, the deterrence associated with FFP rules would increase dramatically.”
Zglinski, however, argues that the Premier League’s handling of the case has exposed serious institutional weaknesses.
“The Premier League does not come out of this looking good. It deserves credit for taking on one of the biggest clubs in the world.”
But, he adds, the saga has demonstrated how slowly and inconsistently football authorities have responded to financial misconduct.
“I hope lessons will be learned, as the system needs significant reform.”
Maguire offers a reminder that football’s most powerful institutions are not necessarily immune from catastrophic consequences.
“Rangers and Juve both subject to severe punishments in other countries, no club too big to fall.”
For Zglinski, City’s recovery is possible, but far from guaranteed.
“Other clubs have gone through comparable phases and bounced back, such as Juventus after Calciopoli and Rangers after their bankruptcy, but that is not a given.”
His final assessment is particularly stark.
“And the stain of being a club that cheated will remain.”
When the whistle blows at Anfield on Sunday, Manchester City’s players will have 90 minutes to influence the outcome of a football match.
The battle that could determine the club’s future, however, may last years.
And its consequences could be felt not only in Manchester, but in Westminster, Abu Dhabi and throughout European football.
