Top Greek seismologist Efthymios Lekkas weighed in on the strong 6.2 quake that shook Istanbul on Wednesday in an interview with public broadcaster ERT, stressing it was still premature to determine whether the earthquake was the main seismic event or a precursor to a larger one.
Lekkas said it was unclear if a fault would rupture and produce a larger earthquake or if the activity would remain at the 6-magnitude level.
“That would require multiple quakes of similar intensity, and even then, it depends on whether the entire fault ruptures — something that is not guaranteed in this timeframe.”
Lekkas noted that the seismic sequence currently unfolding in the area is complex, calling the seismic sequence prolific. “There is still a lot of seismic activity to observe before we can draw any conclusions. It will be fascinating to see how this develops across the wider Istanbul region.”
The initial quake occurred roughly 30 kilometers west of Istanbul, an area long known to be at risk for a major seismic event. “For many years, based on global seismic data, scientists have been warning about a potential major earthquake in Istanbul,” Lekkas said. “Research teams around the world have estimated that a quake of around 7.5 magnitude was likely, one capable of rupturing the last segment of the North Anatolian Fault that has yet to break.”
According to Lekkas, the fault segment involved has the potential to generate a quake between 7 and 7.5 magnitude on the Richter scale. “The recent 6.2-magnitude quake, along with subsequent 5-magnitude tremors, are still far from a full release of seismic energy,” he explained.
