A powerful El Niño weather event could push nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year, bringing the global total to 274 million people across 45 vulnerable countries, the United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP) warned on Wednesday.
According to a new WFP report, there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing, with sea surface temperatures at their highest levels since at least 1982, potentially making it the strongest event since 1950.
El Niño, a periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, disrupts global weather patterns and is often associated with drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoons in parts of Asia, and erratic rainfall in other regions.
“These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger,” Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, told reporters.
Based on its assessment of 45 countries considered vulnerable to El Niño, the WFP estimates that the number of people facing crisis-level or worse food insecurity could increase by nearly 49 million, representing a 22% rise from current levels.
Central America and Southern Africa Most at Risk
As reported in Reuters, the WFP said Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions.
Food insecurity is projected to increase by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa. Southern Africa, along with South America and the Caribbean, could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute food insecurity.
Bauer noted that global food markets entered the current El Niño period in a relatively strong position following good harvests in 2025. However, he warned that conflict in the Middle East and potential weather-related crop losses could increase pressure on food prices.
Although previous El Niño events have not generally caused major global food price spikes, regional shortages and higher prices could make it even harder for vulnerable households to access food.
Funding Cuts Hamper Monitoring Efforts
The WFP also warned that funding cuts from U.S. and European donors in 2025 are limiting efforts to monitor the emerging crisis.
Bauer described a growing “drought” of food security data, noting that the agency conducted about 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, compared with approximately 800,000 in 2025. Data collection has declined further this year because of funding restrictions.
“At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection,” Bauer said, warning that reduced monitoring could delay the identification of emerging food crises.
