In the pre-dawn darkness of Gobbler’s Knob, a hushed crowd gathered, braving the February chill in anticipation of a century-old tradition. Punxsutawney Phil, the world’s most famous groundhog, was gently lifted from his warm burrow by the black-clad members of the “Inner Circle” on Groundhog Day 2025. The question on everyone’s mind: Would he see his shadow?

The answer came swiftly. According to Phil’s official handlers, the legendary groundhog did see his shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter. A collective groan rippled through the crowd, though some optimists clung to the hope that Phil’s track record might once again prove…less than perfect.

A Tradition as Old as Time (Well, Almost)

Groundhog Day dates back to 1887, when German settlers in Pennsylvania brought over a version of Candlemas Day, a Christian and pagan mid-winter festival where a small animal—usually a hedgehog in Europe—was said to predict the changing of the seasons.

Since then, Phil has been the furry face of the holiday, delivering his verdict from the tiny town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

Groundhog Day 2025

People pose with Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle Vice President Dan McGinley, on the day groundhog Punxsutawney Phil makes his prediction on how long winter will last, during the Groundhog Day festivities, at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, U.S., February 2, 2025. REUTERS/Alan Freed

But Phil isn’t the only weather-predicting critter. From Staten Island Chuck in New York to General Beauregard Lee in Georgia, groundhogs (and even a turtle and prairie dog statue) across the U.S. have taken on the role of seasonal seer.

But… Is Phil Actually Any Good at This?

As much as we love a good groundhog prophecy, the data tells a different story.

According to a humorous analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) this year, Punxsutawney Phil has an accuracy rate of just 35% over the past two decades. That means flipping a coin would likely yield better results.

By contrast, Staten Island Chuck has an impressive 85% success rate, making him the most reliable of all the forecasters. General Beauregard Lee, Georgia’s top groundhog, comes in second with 80% accuracy. Meanwhile, poor Mojave Max, a tortoise from Nevada, ranks last with only 25% accuracy—though, to be fair, his method involves waking up from brumation rather than looking for shadows.

Groundhog Day 2025

Groundhog Club members Dave Gigliotti and Dan McGinley prepare to introduce their Inner Circle during a socially distanced and remote event due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the 135th Groundhog Day at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, U.S., February 2, 2021. REUTERS/Alan Freed REFILE – CORRECTING SURNAME FROM “MCGINNIS” TO “MCGINLEY”.

What Does Science Say about Groundhog Day?

While Phil’s fans will always stand by their beloved groundhog, meteorologists prefer to rely on more concrete methods—such as satellite data, atmospheric pressure readings, and computer modeling—to predict seasonal weather trends. The National Weather Service’s long-term forecasts, for example, use historical climate data and current trends to offer far more reliable predictions than any shadow-seeking rodent.

So, Should We Worry About More Winter?

If Phil’s past performance is any indication, his prediction of six more weeks of winter may not hold much weight. But Groundhog Day isn’t really about accuracy—it’s about tradition, nostalgia, and the sheer joy of watching a sleepy groundhog decide the fate of the seasons.

So whether you’re bundling up for another six weeks of cold or hoping for an early thaw, one thing’s for certain: winter—or spring—will come on its own time, no matter what a groundhog says.