Alpha Bank examined the direct and indirect impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs may have on the Greek economy, according to the bank’s latest economic bulletin.
The analysis focuses on key sectors that could be affected by heightened tariffs under a potential new U.S. administration, including exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and tourism flows. Indirect consequences are also expected as a result of broader impacts on other European economies.
Since 2011—excluding the energy crisis year of 2022—Greece has maintained a trade surplus with the United States, which reached approximately €250 million in 2024.
Exports to the U.S. currently represent 1% of Greece’s GDP and less than 5% of its total exports. In 2024, Greek exports to the U.S. totaled €2.4 billion, with 23% consisting of mineral fuels. Other major export categories included food (especially fruits and vegetables) and industrial goods such as vegetables (10.5%), fruits and nuts (4.4%), cement (3.9%), etc.
Given that these sectors are not heavily targeted by typical U.S. tariffs—unlike the automotive or luxury goods sectors—the direct impact on Greece is expected to be limited.
Direct investments from the US to Greece amounted to €177 million in 2024, representing 2.6% of total, with €131 million directed into real estate.
A potential slowdown or recession in the U.S. economy, triggered by adverse effects of Trump’s tariffs and a weakening dollar against the euro, could temporarily reduce incoming tourist flows from the United States, the analysis estimates. Nevertheless, 2024 was a landmark year for U.S. tourism in Greece, with record numbers in both arrivals and revenues. Tourist arrivals from the U.S., including cruise passengers, totaled 1.55 million (3.8% of total arrivals), while tourism revenue from American visitors reached €1.6 billion (7.3% of total revenue), ranking third behind Germany and the UK.
Overall, while the direct impact of increased U.S. trade protectionism on Greece is projected to be moderate, analysts continue to monitor potential indirect repercussions stemming from global economic shifts.
