Although at least five oil tankers made sharp turnarounds following U.S. strikes in the early hours of June 22, traffic remained within normal parameters. However, Iran’s retaliatory action on Monday night has introduced new uncertainties. According to MarineTraffic, by Monday evening, many tankers were showing near-zero speed just before entering the Strait of Hormuz.

Changing Course at the Strait of Hormuz

According to Reuters, which cited ship tracking databases, at least two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) turned around near the Strait and headed south. Other ships appear to have altered course or dropped anchor, awaiting further instructions.

Based on data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence, 15 tanker crossings through the Strait were recorded on Sunday, compared to 21 crossings on June 21 — a decrease, but still within expected ranges. According to Singapore-based Sentosa Shipbrokers, overall transits through the Strait have decreased somewhat.

Empty Tankers and Freight Rates

In the past week, Sentosa reports a 32% drop in the number of empty tankers entering the Gulf, while loaded tanker departures are down 27% compared to early May levels, Reuters notes. Shipowners are trying to minimize the time their vessels spend in the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict, though most ships are still in motion.

At the same time, freight rates for VLCCs — which can carry 2 million barrels of oil — have soared, more than doubling in a week to over $60,000 per day. Insurance premiums for war risk coverage have also jumped by 20%–30%.

Iran Threatens to Close the Strait

On Sunday, the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the Strait, according to Iranian state broadcaster Press TV. However, any such move would still require approval from the Supreme National Security Council.
Iran has made similar threats in the past but has never actually closed the Strait.

Still, analysts at Fearnley Securities note that any closure would likely be short-lived, as the Strait is a critical lifeline for Iran (for oil exports and food imports) as well as for countries it maintains close ties with.

Spike in War Risk Insurance

Finally, war risk insurance premiums for ships transiting the Persian Gulf have risen 20%–30% compared to the same time last month.
Shipowners are now paying 0.25% to 0.3% of the vessel’s hull value to transit the area — around $300,000 for a tanker worth $100 million, according to market sources.
These rates, however, remain below the 0.5% peak seen when Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea.

Source: OT