Starting in 2026, global population aging becomes an undeniable reality. More than half of the world’s population will be living in countries where the working-age population is shrinking. This is the starting point of a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis on the global implications of aging populations.
This topic is explored in the second chapter of the IMF’s annual World Economic Outlook, released on April 25. While much public attention focused on the first chapter, which dealt with the challenges of tariffs, demographic change stands apart — it is both predictable and persistent, slowly and steadily eroding global growth prospects.
To frame the threat, the IMF employs a detailed global economic model. The baseline scenario shows that demographic changes will shave 1.1 percentage points off annual global economic growth by 2050 — a long-term loss far greater than that caused by tariffs.
However, the bulk of the report focuses on a potential “ray of light”: the promise of the Silver Economy. This concept refers to programs aimed at reducing health and social inequalities and ensuring that the benefits of healthy aging are accessible to all countries and social groups. By doing so, it mitigates negative demographic trends and creates fiscal space for new policy initiatives.
Interestingly, the IMF identifies Greece as a country with some of the greatest potential to benefit — a potential global frontrunner in this area — followed by other aging nations like Italy.
Three Solutions from the Silver Economy
The Silver Economy strategy responds to demographic pressure through three main approaches:
- Policies that Promote Healthy Aging
- Increase employment among individuals aged 50–64.
- Promote public health and reduce health inequalities.
- Encourage behaviors that help people maintain good health into older age.
- Voluntary Delay of Retirement Beyond Age 65
- Incentivize people to remain in the workforce longer by offering benefits for voluntarily postponing retirement.
- Aim to raise the actual average retirement age.
- Reducing the Gender Gap in Workforce Participation
- Tapping into the “dividend of equality” by narrowing the gender gap in employment.
- The goal is to reduce this gap by two-thirds by 2040.
The combination of these three policies could offset about three-quarters of the projected economic drag from population aging. For some countries — including Greece and others in Europe — the benefits could be even greater.
