Truth be told, the general polling picture that emerged following the European elections has remained unchanged, with only a few differences of a circumstantial nature.

One could say the most discernible difference is the ongoing fragmentation of the Opposition, which is set to be diluted still further by the new parties announced by Tsipras, Samaras and various other parties.

Of course, discontent with the government has also broadened, though without any serious shifts that could alter the percentages polled by either government or opposition parties. In fact, what we are looking at is a typical mid-term picture, compounded by the fact that this is the mid-point of a second four-year term.

So what are we discussing here? Something very important, actually: the next government.

Even if it is confirmed that New Democracy is drifting far from an electoral performance that will give it an absolute majority (and all the signs indicate that it is…), the only certainty is that the country will have to be governed after the next elections.

But who will be in that government? Listen to the candidates’ proclamations, and you’ll come away with the impression that there will never be a government, given that no one is willing to cooperate with anyone.

But don’t be misled by appearances. Even if a second election is needed (as was the case in both 2012 and 2023…), a government will be formed. Candidates will just have to choose to enter into negotiations at the moment most favorable for them.

For New Democracy, the most favorable moment will be after the second elections, from which the first party should emerge with added strength.

They’ll aim for a second visit to the polls, though they won’t admit it. So as not to further weaken the goal of an absolute majority, perhaps, and the promise of stability that comes with it.

Everyone else will make do with the result of the first election, for the same reason, so there’s no need for a follow-up. Though I can’t see anyone admitting to that, either— before or after the election. And who’s to achieve it?

Probably nobody. But that would work in favor of New Democracy’s strategy. In any case, the numbers won’t allow the first party to be left out of any government formed.

Paradoxically, it’s the second party that will face the most serious problem, especially if it’s PASOK. In theory, it should make a deal after the first elections, when conditions are more in its favor—if only to avoid the second round.

But will it show that sort of flexibility? It’s not a foregone conclusion—in any case, it’s good not to prejudge things, especially a year and a half before the polls open.

Much still remains to be seen. And, of course, a lot will happen between now and then. Especially if the international environment embarks on a process of “unstable stabilization” leading who knows where.