German lender keeps “buy” rating on Greek and Cypriot banks, citing strong fundamentals, resilient economic growth and limited exposure to Middle East risks despite recent market volatility.

Moody's said the broader economic environment is expected to stay supportive, with growth continuing to be driven by investment

Greece’s third-largest lender by market value expects to raise its dividend per share from €0.40 in 2025 to €0.80 by 2030 as part of its new five-year strategic plan, aiming for steady shareholder value growth and expanding loan activity.

Greek banks are reassessing three-year operational plans amid the U.S.–Iran conflict, with potential impacts on credit growth, profitability, and dividend policies if global energy prices and inflation spike

Eurobank is identified as Bank of America’s top pick for 2026, driven by three key catalysts: the potential upgrade of Greece to a developed market, Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone, and Cyprus joining the Schengen area.

The success of bank digitization is particularly evident in consumer lending. According to sources, nearly seven out of ten consumer loans granted last year were issued exclusively through banks’ digital channels.

According to UBS, Alpha Bank offers the strongest earnings-per-share growth but the lowest ROTE, while Eurobank stands out as an attractive regional growth story supported by successful acquisitions.

Deutsche Bank said the potential upgrade of Greece to Developed Market status by MSCI could draw a broader pool of international investors.

Banks will operate as normal on New Year’s Eve, while all branches will remain closed on Thursday, January 1, due to the public holiday. Customer service at bank branches will resume on Friday, January 2

The final bank holiday of the festive season will be Tuesday 6 January, marking the Feast of Epiphany.

JPMorgan’s strategy for Greece includes overweight positions in 10-year bonds, as well as trades reflecting expectations of steeper yields

Goldman Sachs notes that valuations in the sector remain attractive, as Greek banks trade at roughly 1.2 times the 2026

Citigroup forecasts net profit for the third quarter at €221 million (excluding charitable donations for school reconstruction) and reported net profit at €193 million.

Greek banks benefit from better credit conditions, improved liquidity, and stable funding, which enhances their resilience.

UBS noted that Greek banks are still trading at a discount to their European peers, with price-to-earnings ratios of 7.9 times for 2026.

Mortgage lending in Greece is recovering after years of decline, with banks launching low-interest products to attract borrowers in their 40s and 50s

Bank of America recommends a “buy” on three of the banks, except National Bank, for which it maintains a “neutral” rating.

With Euribor near 2%, banks are offering more attractive loans. In July, average mortgage rates fell to 3.52%—110 bps lower than last year—and competition may push them down further.

After eight consecutive reductions, the European Central Bank is expected to halt rate cuts, stabilizing lending conditions and boosting banks’ income prospects.

UBS lowered Greece’s 2025 growth forecast to 2.3% but sees recovery driven by consumption, investment, and tourism, with banks still outperforming the European average.