A prolonged conflict between Israel and Iran could deal a serious blow to Greek tourism, particularly at a time when the market was poised for a strong recovery in arrivals from Israel.

Soaring Israeli Arrivals Now at Risk

According to data from the Airdata Tracker by INSETE, more than 1.36 million airline seats are scheduled from Israel to Greece in 2025—marking a significant 45.8% increase compared to last year. The outlook had been especially promising as the sector anticipated a strong rebound from the Israeli market.

However, a further escalation in tensions would not only impact travel between Israel and Greece but also the broader tourism flow from Gulf countries.

Wider Impact on Gulf Region Tourism

Demand for travel to the Gulf region was showing notable growth globally this year, a trend now at risk of reversing if instability in the Middle East persists.

Still, the shifting travel patterns could bring a partial silver lining to parts of Greece. Cancellations of trips to the Gulf region and Israel may redirect some high-end travelers to destinations like the South Aegean and Crete—particularly those seeking luxury accommodations.

Possible Upside for Greek Luxury Destinations

Historically, Greece has benefited during similar Middle East crises. For instance, during past flare-ups, many cruise operators canceled stops at Israeli and Egyptian ports, opting instead for Greek islands.

Much will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict. Already, several airlines have suspended flights, disrupting traffic not only from Israel but also from Gulf nations, which—together—constitute a significant part of the Greek tourism landscape.

Industry Remains Cautiously Hopeful

At Athens International Airport arrivals from the Gulf region surged by 33% in the first five months of the year, while during the same period, Israel accounted for 52% of that traffic—up from 43% for all of 2024—reflecting a 57% increase in air passenger volume.

In total, Israeli tourism contributes roughly 2% of Greece’s overall arrivals, though this figure is substantially higher in certain regions. In Thessaloniki, for example, Israeli visitors make up an estimated 11% of the city’s tourist base.

Despite current disruptions, industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. Yiannis Hatzis, president of the Hellenic Chamber of Hotels, noted in a recent statement that the Israeli market has demonstrated resilience in past geopolitical crises.