A looming “super” El Niño could inflict between $10 billion and $20 billion in economic losses across Africa, reduce growth in the hardest-hit countries, and trigger widespread migration, according to the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) top climate expert.

Forecasters have warned that the El Niño weather pattern—known for driving severe droughts, flooding, and storms across Africa—could become one of the strongest on record if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue.

Economic Growth at Risk

Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, told Reuters that heavily affected countries could see their gross domestic product shrink by an average of 1% to 2%.

“Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1% to 2% on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent,” Nyong said.

The estimate is the first by a major multilateral development bank to quantify the potential economic impact of the expected El Niño. Nyong did not provide a country-by-country breakdown but warned the effects are unlikely to be limited to a single event.

The AfDB’s latest economic forecasts, released in May, projected Africa’s economy would grow by 4.2% this year and 4.4% in 2027, assuming the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran eases. Those projections were made before forecasts emerged of a possible “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño.

Beyond threatening food and water security, Nyong warned that widespread climate-related disasters could undermine government finances and banking systems if infrastructure is damaged and debt-burdened countries struggle to repay related loans.

He said many governments are already caught in what he described as a “climate finance trap,” forcing them to divert funding from health care, education, and infrastructure projects to respond to climate emergencies.

Agriculture and Food Security Under Pressure

The 2023-2024 El Niño brought severe drought to Southern Africa and heavy rainfall and flooding to East Africa, resulting in widespread crop failures, soaring food prices, and record-high sea-level increases along the continent’s coastlines.

According to the AfDB, African farmers are already expected to lose nearly $330 million in income this year, while rising sea temperatures and storms could also significantly affect the fishing industry.

“When these shocks happen, countries take two steps back,” Nyong said. “We don’t want our countries to slide into poverty.”

Drought conditions across much of the Sahel could persist, while countries such as Mozambique continue to illustrate how recovery from major storms can take years following disasters like Cyclone Idai in 2019.

Adaptation Funding Needs to Double

The bank plans to expand its response through a bank-wide seminar in September, where senior officials will assess the impact of El Niño on both planned and existing investments.

Nyong said the AfDB is prepared to restructure projects to help countries manage the expected impacts and will work with governments to access additional funding from international mechanisms, including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund, Climate Investment Funds, and newer loss-and-damage financing programs.

He said Africa’s climate adaptation financing needs have risen sharply because of the expected strength of the weather event.

“The need was already about $50 billion,” Nyong said, referring to the next 12 months. “But this adds another $30 billion to $50 billion to that.”

A United Nations report published in October estimated that developing countries will collectively require around $365 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change, while international public adaptation finance totaled just $26 billion in 2023.

Migration and Regional Stability Concerns

Nyong warned that humanitarian pressures could intensify, identifying Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria among the countries that could face particularly severe consequences.

“When this El Niño comes there is going to be mass migration,” he said, adding that the price of maize—a staple food across much of Africa—is expected to double. “You are not going to stay put, you are going to move.”

He said increased competition for grazing land and water could deepen instability in already fragile regions. Agricultural losses are estimated at about $327 million, while fisheries productivity could decline by between 1% and 4%.

Nyong stressed that Africa must invest more heavily in resilience before disasters occur, saying preventive action is more effective than responding after crises unfold.

“It is cheaper to build a fence around a precipice than to pay for expensive ambulances to wait at the bottom for people to fall,” he said. “So let’s build a fence.”