Deutsche Bank has raised its target price for Alpha Bank to €3.35 from €3, maintaining a “buy” recommendation. The German multinational investment bank stresses the Greek systemic bank’s robust performance in Q1 2025, suggesting solid fundamentals and a positive outlook.
The Greek bank, the German bank notes, is outperforming its competitors primarily due to its strong lending portfolio (+13% annually).
In its analysis, Deutsche Bank reckons the Greek bank will benefit from further strategic buyouts and mergers, as they are estimated to boost surplus capital.
Net interest income (NII) is projected to remain stable in 2025, with a substantial uptick in the future, while fees will see a notable rise for 2025-2027 thanks to the UniCredit deal, which saw the latter raise its total stake in Alpha Bank to roughly 20%.
The German bank highlights Alpha Bank’s ability to retain impressive yields, with a target of 39% in 2025 and 37% in 2027, while managing strict cost control, despite the need to invest more in staff and technology.
The Greek bank’s resilient asset quality allows for a slight reduction in provisions for bad loans (cost of risk around 45 basis points for 2026–2027), which in turn supports rising earnings per share (EPS).
Deutsche Bank estimates the systemic bank to gradually increase its dividend payout—from the current 50% to 60% by 2027—based on the Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) exceeding 13% by 2027 and strong capital levels.
