Greek Economy to Grow by 2.3% in 2025: EC Spring Forecast

The Greek economy expanded by 2.3% in 2024 and is projected to grow at a similar rate in 2025, while in 2026 GDP will reach 2.2%, according to the European Commission’s Spring forecast.

Consumer spending and investment supported by EU funding are seen as the primary driving forces for the rise in Greek GDP. Inflation is forecast to fall to 2.8% this year and further ease to 2.3% by 2026.

In its report on Greece, the Commission notes that the country’s economy “maintains its momentum despite challenges.”

In 2024, Greece recorded economic growth of 2.3%, largely fueled by private consumption, investment, and inventory build-up. Despite a tightening fiscal stance, strong domestic demand drove a notable rise in imports, while exports grew at a more modest pace, resulting in net exports weighing on overall economic activity.

The EC report says the imposition of U.S. tariffs will only mildly affect the Greek economy because of its relatively low direct and indirect trade ties with the United States.

Persistent trade tensions and geopolitical volatility could act as negative risks for growth prospects, the Commission underlines. In addition, a deterioration in the global economic outlook could negatively impact Greek exports—particularly in the tourism sector.

The jobless rate, 10.1% in 2024, is forecast to continue its downward trend, settling at 9.3% in 2025 and 8.7% in 2026. The Commission notes that Greece achieved a significant fiscal surplus in 2024, which is expected to be sustained over the forecast horizon.

The general government balance showed a surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2024. This is projected to dip to 0.7% in 2025 before rebounding to 1.4% in 2026. Supported by robust nominal GDP growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio is anticipated to continue declining, reaching 140.6% by 2026.

In 2025, the general government surplus is expected to decline to 0.7% of GDP. On the revenue side, the forecast reflects a higher baseline, owing to stronger-than-anticipated revenue performance in 2024. It also factors in the planned increase in the overnight stay tax on hotels, structural measures to combat tax evasion, the extension of the digital work card system to the food service and tourism sectors—aimed at reducing undeclared labor—and higher local government fees.