HSBC has issued a significant upward revision to its price targets for Greek banks, maintaining a “buy” recommendation for the sector overall—except for National Bank of Greece (NBG), which it rates as “hold.” The updated targets imply upside potential ranging from 13.5% to 41.5%.
Specifically, HSBC raised its target for Alpha Bank to 3.75 euros from 3.05 euros, for National Bank to 11.80 from 9.90 euros, and for Piraeus Bank to 7.50 from 7.25 euros. It slightly reduced its target for Eurobank to 3.30 euros from 3.50 euros.
These revisions follow a reassessment based on the banks’ Q1 2025 results, expectations of lower interest rates, and recent M&A activity. Although the market’s implied yield curve suggests further margin pressure, HSBC still sees reason to lift its earnings estimates by an average of 5% for both 2025 and 2026.
Greek bank stocks have surged around 40% year-to-date. Even so, the sector still trades at a discount, with a 2026 price-to-tangible book value (P/TBV) ratio of just 0.9x—below regional peers in CEEMEA that offer similar return on equity and growth prospects.
Alpha Bank’s strong first-quarter results have reinforced HSBC’s confidence, as it was the only major Greek lender to post a sequential rise in core pre-provision income (PPI)—a result of limited NII sensitivity to rate cuts and supportive conditions.
Piraeus Bank had a softer quarter, with a deeper NII decline and seasonal cost pressures, though strong asset growth points to a potential Q2 recovery. Eurobank’s credit expansion and NBG’s bond investments helped buffer NII pressure.
HSBC also sees M&A activity as a catalyst for renewed investor interest, incorporating Alpha’s Astrobank and Axia deals, Eurobank’s CNP Insurance buy, and Piraeus’ acquisition of National Insurance into its outlook.
