According to a report in Handelsblatt, Germany’s leading business newspaper, the outgoing government has issued a veto that halts the delivery of approximately three dozen Eurofighter combat aircraft to President Erdogan’s Turkey. Handelsblatt, which in terms of influence and credibility is often compared to the Financial Times in the UK or The Wall Street Journal in the U.S., cites “multiple sources familiar with the confidential internal deliberations of the German government.”
In cases involving sensitive international arms deals, sources frequently insist on anonymity—anonymity that inevitably complicates the assessment of the report’s reliability. It is also worth noting that in such matters, politically interested actors often leak selective information that aligns with their agendas. Caution is therefore warranted in evaluating such reports.
The timing of the disclosure doesn’t make things easier. The news broke on the eve of the Easter recess and was subsequently circulated widely – but with little official comment during the holiday period. That may be a coincidence—but politically, the timing may be consequential.
Although Olaf Scholz remains Germany’s chancellor in formal terms, he has been a lame duck since parliamentary elections two months ago. In just two weeks, Scholz will hand over the keys to the Chancellery—and with them, political power—to election winner Friedrich Merz. The final details of the transition are currently underway in Berlin.
It is longstanding practice in Germany for outgoing governments to avoid making decisions that could bind their successors. It is also widely known in Berlin that Scholz and Merz have been coordinating on key matters, particularly in the realm of foreign policy. This strongly suggests that the decision to block the Eurofighter delivery has the blessing of the chancellor-in-waiting.
Handelsblatt reports that the arrest of Turkish opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu is the reason behind the denied export license, which in Germany is subject to stringent oversight. The German government reportedly referred to the arrest as an “assault on Turkish democracy.” In fact, Olaf Scholz condemned the detention of Istanbul’s mayor more sharply than most other Western leaders. Criticism has also come from within the CDU, the future governing party.
The news of the veto comes as a surprise. In recent months, signs had emerged that Scholz might drop his opposition to the arms deal with Ankara. In October last year, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan publicly stated that Berlin had given the green light for the start of technical negotiations between Turkey and the Eurofighter consortium—comprising firms from Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Germany. At the same time, Berlin approved a separate, multi-million-euro package of new arms exports to Turkey.
The newly agreed coalition agreement between the CDU and SPD, which lays out the contours of their joint political agenda for the next four years, states that Germany will align its arms export policy more closely with its interests in foreign, economic, and security policy. While the agreement also cites the importance of international law and human rights, the most vocal critics of German arms exports to Turkey have traditionally come from the Green Party. Until now, the Greens hold the foreign ministry—and with it, significant sway over weapons policy. But the Greens were among the major losers in the recent elections and will now move into opposition.
The news from Berlin has sparked sharp criticism in the Turkish media. While some outlets note that the veto serves as a signal of German disapproval over Turkey’s authoritarian drift, a widespread hypothesis holds that Germany acted under pressure from Israel. According to this view, the arrest of İmamoğlu is merely a pretext, and the real aim is to prevent any modernization of Turkey’s aging air force.
If the theory of Israeli influence proves accurate—though by its nature it is unlikely ever to be confirmed—it would spell trouble for Erdogan’s plans to upgrade his air fleet with Western technology. Israel’s lobby in Washington is at least as influential as Germany’s historically rooted sensitivities regarding the security of the Jewish state.
For its part, the Greek government would likely welcome confirmation of the German veto. Whether Berlin acted out of concern for democratic backsliding in Turkey, or for other strategic reasons, will ultimately matter little in Athens.
Dr. Ronald Meinardus is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
