NATO leaders are convening later today in The Hague for a pivotal summit expected to redefine the Alliance’s long-term defence strategy. Central to the discussions will be a bold new target: increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Greece, represented by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, is poised to underline its consistent commitment to NATO and present an ambitious new defence investment programme.

A Crucial Gathering Amid Global Shifts

This year’s summit carries heightened political significance, not least because of the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump. After past criticism of NATO’s burden-sharing, Trump is anticipated to strike a more collaborative tone, having expressed satisfaction with European progress on military spending. His arrival in the Netherlands last night included a high-profile welcome by the Dutch royal family — a gesture seen as both symbolic and diplomatic.

The main outcome expected from the summit is the formal adoption of a new defence spending goal: 5% of each member state’s GDP by 2035. The target includes 3.5% dedicated to traditional military capabilities and 1.5% for broader security efforts such as cyber defence and infrastructure protection. While all member states have signaled support, Spain is expected to express reservations, citing its preference for a more flexible approach. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is believed to be working behind the scenes to secure consensus and project unity — a key objective for the Alliance amid global scrutiny.

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Meeting between the prime minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte, at Maximos Mansion, Athens, Greece, in November 26, 2024.

Greece to Emphasize Reliability and Investment

Prime Minister Mitsotakis is expected to use his address at the summit to highlight Greece’s track record as a dependable and proactive NATO ally — even during the most difficult years of its financial crisis. He will underscore that Greece currently allocates approximately 3% of its GDP to defence, making it the fifth-highest contributor in relative terms among NATO members.

Mitsotakis is also set to present a new €25 billion, 12-year defence procurement programme aimed at enhancing Greece’s military capabilities and reinforcing its contribution to the Alliance’s collective security. Greek officials stress that this investment reflects the country’s long-term strategic commitment, especially as security challenges intensify in neighbouring regions.

In his remarks, the Greek Prime Minister is also expected to draw attention to escalating instability in the Middle East and the wider global security environment — arguing that NATO’s role is more essential than ever in this unpredictable era.

Possible Meeting with Erdoğan

With both Greek and Turkish leaders attending the summit, speculation is growing about the possibility of a brief informal meeting between Prime Minister Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While no such meeting has been officially confirmed, their joint presence in The Hague leaves open the prospect of a brief dialogue. Such an interaction would be viewed as a continuation of recent diplomatic efforts to maintain communication between Athens and Ankara.

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Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis arrives at a dinner for NATO heads of states and government hosted by Dutch King Willem-Alexander and Dutch Queen Maxima, on the sidelines of a NATO Summit, at Huis ten Bosch Palace in The Hague, Netherlands June 24, 2025. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Trump’s Ambiguous Position on Article 5

While President Trump is expected to support the new defence spending targets, his stance on NATO’s foundational Article 5 — the mutual defence clause — remains unclear. In remarks to reporters prior to his arrival, Trump avoided a clear commitment, stating that there are “many definitions” of the clause and promising to elaborate once at the summit. This ambiguity is likely to raise concerns among allies looking for a firm reaffirmation of collective defence.

Trump is also scheduled to meet bilaterally with several leaders on the sidelines, including President Erdoğan and, reportedly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Though Ukraine is not part of the official summit agenda, its leadership is expected to seek further Western military support and discuss potential purchases of Patriot air defence systems.

A Geopolitical Flashpoint

As NATO attempts to present a unified front, the Kremlin has issued strong criticism ahead of the summit, accusing the Alliance of “uncontrolled militarization” and stoking tensions in Europe. The Russian government claims NATO is exaggerating threats to justify expanded armament — a narrative that underlines the fragile geopolitical backdrop against which the summit is taking place.