The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has risen from 2.3% to 3.1% (or 1 in 32), prompting growing global concern.
NASA, which has been tracking the asteroid since late December, initially assigned a 2.3% probability of impact on February 7.
However, new calculations have increased that estimate to 3.1%, fueling fears that the risk may continue to rise as further research clarifies its trajectory.
If 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, it would do so at an astonishing speed of 17 kilometers per second (38,000 mph). While NASA predicts the asteroid would cause significant localized destruction rather than a planet-wide catastrophe, its Potential Impact Corridor includes major metropolitan areas such as Mumbai, Lagos, and Bogotá—cities with millions of residents who could be at risk.
The asteroid currently holds a rating of 3 on the Torino Scale, a system used to measure impact probability and potential damage (ranging from 0, meaning no threat, to 10, indicating certain and catastrophic impact). In order for a flying mass to register on the Torino Scale, it must be a larger than 20 meters, with a greater impact probability than 1%. Even objects with a 100% probability of impact will be rated 0 on the Torino Scale if smaller than 20 meters.
While a rating of 3 suggests that a collision remains unlikely, it is significant enough to warrant heightened attention from the scientific community and global policymakers.
NASA and other space agencies continue to monitor the 2024 YR4’s trajectory closely, with further updates expected as new data becomes available. The asteroid can be further monitored until April 2025, when it will disappear from view until 2028, when it will continue to be closely observed.
While the risk remains low, preparedness and ongoing observation are crucial before the asteroid’s 3-year-long leave of absence.
