Greece is expected to lose its long-held position as the eurozone’s most indebted country in 2026, with Italy projected to take the top spot as debt trends in the two economies diverge, according to officials cited by Reuters.
Greek public debt is forecast to drop to around 137% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, down from 145% in 2025, two senior officials said. In contrast, Italy’s debt is expected to rise from 137.1% of GDP in 2025 to 138.6% in 2026, based on the country’s latest multi-year budget plan.
“Greece will not be the most indebted country in the euro zone — from this year,” one Greek official said.
The updated figures will be included in Greece’s forthcoming fiscal plan, due to be submitted to the European Commission later this month.
The shift marks a notable milestone for Greece, which has spent the past decade recovering from a severe financial crisis that required three international bailouts totaling about €280 billion. Since 2020, the country has reduced its debt ratio by more than 45 percentage points, bringing it down to 145% of GDP last year.
By comparison, Italy has cut its debt by roughly 17 percentage points over the same period, though its overall debt trajectory is now expected to edge higher in the short term.
Italy’s debt is projected to remain broadly stable after 2026, slipping slightly to 138.5% in 2027 before gradually declining to 136.3% by 2029, according to its budget plan.
Greece is also planning to repay approximately €7 billion in loans from its first bailout program ahead of schedule later this year, a move that could further support its improving debt profile.
