Russian and Ukrainian officials are meeting on Monday in Istanbul for the second round of direct peace negotiations since the war began in 2022, but prospects for a breakthrough remain dim as both sides continue to clash on the battlefield and diverge sharply on key issues.
The renewed diplomatic engagement, hosted by Turkey, follows a tentative first round of talks held on May 16, which led to the largest prisoner swap of the war but failed to produce any movement toward a ceasefire or lasting peace. Despite mounting international pressure—particularly from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has warned that Washington could “walk away” from supporting the war—Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart on the terms of ending the conflict.
High-Stakes Dialogue
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov is leading Kyiv’s delegation, joined by Deputy Foreign Minister and several military and intelligence officials, according to an executive order issued by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia’s team is headed by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, who previously invoked Napoleon to assert that war and negotiations must proceed simultaneously.
According to Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg, both delegations are expected to present documents outlining their peace proposals during the Istanbul talks. Representatives from Britain, France, and Germany will also participate, although the level of U.S. involvement remains unclear.
The talks come after a weekend of intensified combat. On Sunday, Ukraine launched a bold attack targeting Russian nuclear-capable long-range bombers in Siberia and other strategic military sites. In retaliation, the Kremlin deployed a record 472 drones against Ukraine in a single night—the highest tally so far in the war, according to Ukraine’s air force.
Core Disagreements
Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted that Ukraine must abandon its NATO membership ambitions and withdraw troops from all parts of four Ukrainian regions claimed and largely controlled by Moscow. This remains Russia’s baseline demand for a peace agreement.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has drafted its own proposed roadmap for peace, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters. The document firmly rejects any recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied territories and demands reparations for Ukraine. It also stipulates that the current frontline will serve as the starting point for territorial negotiations and insists there be no post-war restrictions on Ukraine’s military strength.
While the Kremlin has said it is still drafting its own memorandum, Medinsky told Russian media that Moscow had received Ukraine’s proposal and would respond on Monday.
International and Domestic Pressure
The resumption of talks comes amid increasing pressure from Washington. President Trump, though vocally critical of both Putin—calling him “crazy”—and Zelenskiy, has emphasized that peace must be achieved and warned that further delays could prompt additional sanctions on Russia.
The White House’s tone has hardened in recent weeks, with officials signaling that the United States could withdraw support if both sides refuse to compromise. The broader geopolitical community, including European powers, also views the Istanbul negotiations as a critical—albeit uncertain—opportunity to de-escalate a war that has now lasted over three years and caused more than 1.2 million casualties, according to U.S. estimates.
Russia currently controls just under one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, or approximately 113,100 square kilometers—an area roughly the size of the U.S. state of Ohio.
