Scientists Warn Athens at High Risk for Major Wildfire

Athens is a “sitting duck,” scientists warn in a Financial Times feature, as climate and topography make the Greek capital dangerously vulnerable to climate-related disasters—particularly wildfires.

According to researchers interviewed for the report, the wider Athens area contains “the perfect mix of conditions for a major wildfire.” Fires are becoming not only more frequent but harder to predict, and they’re increasingly encroaching on densely populated urban areas.

The FT turned its attention to Athens, one of the cities most exposed to climate change, to explore what the months ahead might look like for residents who live in constant fear of the next major blaze.

A major fire could, for instance, ignite in Mount Hymettus, on the ouskirts of Athens, says Kostas Lagouvardos, Director of Research at the National Observatory of Athens. The mountain is scattered with historic monasteries and pine forests. “I think it will be the next one,” he notes. Simulations conducted with atmospheric modeller Theodoros Giannaros show that a fire starting on the northern slopes of Hymettus could “progress very rapidly” if driven by strong winds. Flames could easily spread toward the urban campus zone, right at the city’s edge.

Even though Hymettus is closely monitored, especially in the summer months, “a wildfire could still happen,” Lagouvardos says.

The article recounts fires that have already struck forested areas in Varnavas and near the Penteli Observatory, where scientists studying the relationship between weather and fire were caught off guard last August. That a blaze reached their doorstep underscores the challenges cities now face as extreme weather events intensify.

“It was a shock for many,” Lagouvardos admits. Despite Attica’s recent string of wildfires—fueled by record-breaking heat—this was the first time flames reached so close to urban neighborhoods, like Patima in Chalandri.

Athens ultimately narrowly escaped disaster. “What was missing was wind,” says Thomas Smith, Associate Professor of Environmental Geography at the London School of Economics—pointing to wind as a key factor in turning a manageable fire into a catastrophic one.

Athens, like Dallas, Lisbon, Sydney, and Cape Town, is what some scientists call a “sitting duck”—highly susceptible to disasters such as fires or floods due to climate and topography. The 2025 fire season may be one of the hottest on record, even after a cooler La Niña event earlier this year. Scientists warn of growing climate-related risks, noting that dry, windy conditions like those behind recent Los Angeles fires were made about 35% more likely by climate change.

In Athens, modelling by Christos Giannakopoulos of the National Observatory shows that, under a “business-as-usual” scenario with little progress on emissions reductions, the city could experience up to 40 more days each year with temperatures above 35°C by 2050 compared to the 1981–2000 average.

According to Joe McNorton, a surface modeling specialist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Athens has “the perfect mix” for a major fire: vegetation as fuel, a heat or man-made ignition source, and the right weather conditions—including high winds.

Urban sprawl makes matters worse. While wildfires have existed for millennia as part of natural ecosystems, more people now live near potential fuel zones. Since the 1950s, buildings in Athens have crept closer to the mountains, hills, and sea—creating new ignition risks.

Unstable weather also makes these areas more flammable. In Los Angeles, a wet season led to explosive shrub growth, followed by drought that dried out the plants—perfect fuel. The resulting fires destroyed thousands of homes and killed 30 people.

A similar pattern could unfold in Athens, experts warn: a rainy spell followed by drought and 40°C+ heat would create dangerous fire conditions. Smith adds that the decline of agriculture, including goats and sheep that once kept vegetation in check, has allowed brush to flourish unchecked.

Fires also have long-term consequences, especially flooding, says Michalis Diakakis, a disaster risk expert at the University of Athens. He explains that burn-scarred areas can be prone to flooding for up to a decade. “It’s easy for a river section to clog, pushing water out and flooding the area. Eventually, that water flows into the city center.”