Greece is awaiting a sovereign credit assessment from Fitch Ratings on Friday, as the government navigates persistent uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and its knock-on effects on energy markets.

The rating comes at a delicate moment. Greece’s Ministry of National Economy and Finance has already revised its forecasts for both growth and inflation downward, and while the country’s public debt continues to decline as a share of GDP, it remains the highest in Europe. Greece is not expected to lose that distinction until late 2026, when Italy is projected to surpass it, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts.

Despite those pressures, Greece has maintained stable ratings from major international agencies so far in 2026, holding its position within investment-grade territory. Still, the country remains at the lower end of that range, in the “B” tier, and no upgrade is expected this year.

Rating agencies have largely adopted a wait-and-see posture. Standard & Poor’s held its assessment unchanged on April 24, declining to publish a new report, though it had upgraded Greece to investment grade in April of last year. Morningstar DBRS kept its BBB rating with a stable outlook in early March. Moody’s followed days later, affirming Baa3 with stable prospects, as did Scope, which maintained its BBB with stable outlook.

One notable bright spot emerged Wednesday, when Federico Bariga-Salazar, Fitch’s head of Western European sovereign ratings, said in a webinar that while most European governments’ support measures in response to energy pressures had been modest — ranging from 0.3% of GDP in Spain to less than 0.01% in France and the United Kingdom — Greece stood apart. “The only country that has really implemented targeted measures is Greece,” he said.

With the Fitch review concluding the first half of the ratings calendar, attention turns to the autumn. DBRS opens the fall season on Sept. 4, followed by Moody’s and Scope on Sept. 18. S&P is scheduled for Oct. 23 and Fitch for Nov. 6.

Those reviews will unfold against a more complicated backdrop. Greece is expected to hold general elections next year, and rating analysts will factor potential electoral outcomes into their assessments. Beyond the election, agencies will be weighing the broader geopolitical landscape — Middle East tensions, trade tariffs and a shifting macroeconomic environment — factors that are expected to keep most agencies in a cautious holding pattern, at least in the near term.

Source: ot.gr