Google Button Μake us preferred on Google

The war in the Middle East has already cost the Greek economy an estimated €3 billion during its first six months, according to a review by the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (EVEP).

Of the total, approximately €1.5 billion is attributed to additional energy costs, €600 million to lost business turnover, €500 million to transport and supply-chain costs, and €400 million to the fiscal burden.

Inflationary pressures are estimated at close to €1 billion, but this amount is not added separately to the €3 billion total because part of the impact has already been incorporated into energy and business costs.

The EVEP’s assessment, based on data processed from the European Union, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, International Labor Organization, Eurostat and Greece’s Hellenic Statistical Authority, comes as the Greek economy continues to grow despite the disruption.

Greece’s economy keeps growing amid the shock

Greek gross domestic product increased by 2% during the first half of 2026, while inflation eased from 3.9% in June to 2.7% in July.

However, high prices continued to reduce households’ real disposable income and increase liquidity pressures on small and medium-sized businesses.

The EVEP said the experience of the past six months once again demonstrates how a prolonged geopolitical crisis can quickly spread beyond the battlefield into energy markets, maritime transport, inflation, consumption and, ultimately, economic growth.

For the EU and Greece, the period can be viewed as a new energy and trade disruption that may be smaller than the 2022 crisis but serious enough to overturn initial economic forecasts for 2026.

Energy costs were the first major impact

The sharp reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed up crude oil, fuel and natural gas prices.

In July, international prices remained about 30% above their levels before the war began, although they had fallen from the extreme levels recorded during the first weeks.

For the EU, the additional energy bill after six months is estimated at approximately €85 billion.

According to the EVEP, this represents money leaving the European economy to purchase essentially the same or smaller quantities of energy at higher prices.

Europe’s energy dependence has changed form since 2022 but has not disappeared. Greater reliance on liquefied natural gas has reduced dependence on Russian pipelines while increasing Europe’s exposure to global shipping routes and fluctuations in international prices.

The impact on European growth

The EU has revised its 2026 growth forecast downward to 1.1%, with the new energy disruption considered a major factor behind the slowdown.

The IMF estimates that the war could reduce eurozone GDP by approximately 0.5% over two years.

Based on these revisions, the loss of turnover in real economic activity across the EU during the six-month period is estimated at nearly €30 billion.

The losses stem from weaker consumption, postponed investment, higher production costs and reduced competitiveness among European businesses.

Inflation remains another major concern. The European Central Bank expects inflation to peak at around 3% during the second half of 2026, largely because higher oil prices are being passed through to fuel, food and agricultural products.

The inflationary burden on the European economy is estimated at about €25 billion through lost purchasing power and higher operating costs.

Meanwhile, more expensive freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, delays and the need to maintain larger inventories are estimated to have added another €15 billion to European transport and supply-chain costs.

An additional €15 billion is attributed approximately to the fiscal cost. Energy-support measures announced by EU member states through May alone had reached €14.5 billion.

Overall, the EVEP estimates the gross economic burden on the EU after six months at €145 billion.

The figure does not represent a direct loss of GDP. It includes additional spending, lost income and macroeconomic effects, but provides an indication of the overall economic cost from the end of February through the end of August.

How the €3 billion cost breaks down for Greece

For Greece, the estimated six-month cost is approximately €3 billion:

  • €1.5 billion in additional energy costs
  • €600 million in lost turnover
  • €500 million in transport and supply-chain costs
  • €400 million in fiscal costs

The estimated inflationary pressure of close to €1 billion is not counted separately because some of its effects are already reflected in the energy and business costs.

Despite the economic pressure, Greece’s economy continued to expand during the first half of the year.

Shipping presents a mixed picture for Greece

Shipping is a special case for the Greek economy.

Domestic ferry operators have been hit by higher marine fuel prices. At the same time, Greek-owned ocean shipping has benefited from higher freight rates, despite increased risks, insurance costs, higher fuel expenses and longer voyages.

Shipping revenues, however, do not offset the burden facing industry, trade, transport, tourism, small and medium-sized businesses and households, according to the EVEP.

Six phases of the conflict

The EVEP’s review divides the conflict’s economic impact into six phases.

  • The first phase, from Feb. 28 to March 16, was characterized by military escalation, a sharp increase in geopolitical risk and rising energy prices.
  • The second phase, from mid-March to mid-April, brought serious disruption to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, along with higher risk-insurance premiums and freight rates. The resulting energy and shipping crisis led to diverted routes, reduced flows and disruptions at oil and natural gas facilities.
  • The third phase created expectations of a temporary de-escalation and allowed markets to adjust following a temporary easing and cease-fire during May.
  • The fourth phase, from June through mid-July, confirmed that uncertainty would persist despite intensive diplomacy.
  • The fifth phase, beginning in mid-July, brought renewed military escalation, with attacks reappearing and geopolitical risks remaining high.
  • The sixth phase, in August, finds the global economy facing a new threat of what the EVEP describes as an economic “D-Day” following the interruption of diplomatic dialogue.
  • The return of the situation to the “starting point” after six months risks creating an economic cost for Europe with lasting characteristics, according to the assessment.

EVEP president says uncertainty now has a price

Vassilis Korkidis, president of the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry and vice president of the Association of Mediterranean Chambers of Commerce and Industry (ASCAME), said the six-month review shows that the war has transformed from a military conflict into an economic factor.

“The uncertainty has acquired a price,” Korkidis said, emphasizing the need for urgent energy diversification in Europe and Greece, as well as investment in electricity networks and logistics hubs.

He said these investments are needed to support a faster transition toward a less import-dependent and more productive economic model.

For the EVEP, Korkidis said, Europe and Greece need investment in energy and agri-food, but above all need to strengthen domestic and European production.

“The next day for the EU requires a more resilient, productive and competitive economic model,” he said.

As geopolitical disruptions continue, Korkidis argued that economic resilience is no longer simply a policy choice but a prerequisite for growth and competitiveness.