We live in a world that, through successive crises, is becoming increasingly uncertain. A world that is accelerating and growing more complex, giving the impression that it is leaving us behind, that our perceptual abilities are no longer sufficient to understand it.
Yet human beings cannot live in a world they do not understand. Even when meaning becomes difficult to discern, it must exist somewhere. And if it does not exist, we invent it. And if rational explanations are not enough, we turn to others as well. This is how mental frameworks emerge that attempt to explain our world. This is also how so-called conspiracy theories flourish, offering a key to understanding the world based on “hidden knowledge,” that is, knowledge supposedly concealed by the official institutions of politics, science, and the media.
Like all things, these theories exist in degrees. Some may appear plausible and others entirely irrational; some indirectly question scientific knowledge while others reject it outright; some are connected to different social and cultural contexts and circumstances. Within the framework of the research presented here, a series of such explanatory frameworks—seven in total—were examined, resulting in a “ranking” based on the degree of public acceptance.
First comes the belief that “secret organizations govern the world,” with 47% agreeing, making it the only theory that appears to enjoy majority acceptance. This is not something unprecedented. Many have attempted to unlock the “secret” of power, and the idea that alongside visible authority there exists an invisible network of governance has long fueled the collective imagination. The current popularity of this idea may also stem from revelations surrounding the Epstein case and the networks of a global elite perceived as operating beyond the law. At the same time, in an era of enormous inequalities, the real concentration of economic and political power in the hands of a very small group of people may naturally reinforce this theory.
The second most popular theory is the so-called Great Replacement theory, currently the most influential far-right-inspired conspiracy theory circulating in Europe, according to which “there is a plan to replace Europe’s population with migrants.” This idea is linked to the xenophobic reflexes currently on the rise, as well as to the associated social anxieties that the far right politically exploits and instrumentalises. According to the survey findings, this theory is accepted by a not insignificant 34% of respondents, although the majority rejects it (54%).
Next, at 27%, comes the belief that coronavirus vaccines “were used to control people,” a direct challenge to the medical knowledge that supported vaccination under the extraordinary conditions of the pandemic. Since memories of that period remain fresh, it seems understandable that the percentage of people sharing this view remains relatively high. Moreover, this perception is linked to a broader anti-vaccination skepticism movement, one strong enough that the US Secretary of Health emerged from its ranks.
Less popular is another theory that also directly disputes the scientific consensus that climate change is real and caused by human activity. Thus, for 21%, climate change does not exist and “weather changes are natural,” although 70% disagree with this view. Scientific evidence—as well as political assurances to the contrary—is also challenged by the belief that “there are airplanes spraying us,” a theory accepted by 17% and rejected by 72%.
Finally, two conspiracy theories related to space receive low levels of acceptance: that extraterrestrials have already contacted humanity but governments are keeping it secret (9%), and that the Earth is flat (3%). Geography plays a role here. Such theories are very popular in the United States, considering the extensive discussions surrounding the secrets of Area 51 or the Flat Earther movement, but they remain relatively marginal in Greece.
Based on these responses, it is also possible to construct an index measuring receptiveness to such beliefs (“Conspiracy believers”). According to how many of these theories respondents accept, we can distinguish 36% who could be described as “Rejecters” (accepting none of the seven theories) and, at the other end, 16% who are “Susceptible” (accepting at least four of the seven theories examined), while the majority falls somewhere in between, as the “Intermediate” group—those accepting one to three of them—accounts for 48%.
It is worth making one further critical observation. If we examine the demographic data behind the overall responses, we find that characteristics such as age or gender do not play a particularly significant role in the acceptance of such theories. Political orientation does matter, however, as in most cases those who identify as right-wing appear more receptive, especially regarding the Great Replacement theory and anti-vaccination attitudes. Low trust in politics also clearly plays a role, as does the feeling of being an outsider and “outside the walls,” conditions that almost always strengthen acceptance of conspiracy theories.
It recalls the Shakespearean phrase, “Though this be madness, yet there is method in’t.” Conspiracy theories may be plausible or irrational, but they serve a function: they provide meaning in a world that appears chaotic and incomprehensible. And when people feel their voices are not being heard, when they feel unprotected and insecure, they become more ready to search for the “secrets” that official authorities supposedly conceal.
This, however, raises a serious question of political education—for those willing to hear it.
Mr Giannis Balampanidis is a political analyst and head of political and social research at Metron Analysis.
