The Greek side is watching with evident concern an unfolding crisis in Turkey-Israel relations, at a time when exchanges between Ankara and Tel Aviv have escalated markedly, with diplomatic sources describing the confrontation as increasingly taking on dimensions of a mutual existential threat.
With the next 45 days being viewed as critical as Israel heads toward parliamentary elections on Oct. 27, and analysts describing the vote as an “extremely close contest” whose outcome will determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, diplomatic teams in Athens and other regional capitals are closely monitoring the peaks in what have become almost daily exchanges between the two sides. The Turkish and Israeli leaders are now responding to each other directly, using increasingly harsh language against the backdrop of developments in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Although both sides have expressed genuine concern over the growing Turkish-Israeli tensions, Athens and Tel Aviv are also hoping that the confrontation will not spill over onto the ground, which could trigger uncontrolled developments in the Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Greek officials say the situation requires attention but argue that neither “camp” would have an interest in taking matters to the extreme. The current assessment is that the confrontation will continue largely at the rhetorical level, for reasons that serve both sides, with officials on each side periodically responding to demonstrate, domestically and internationally, that they are not abandoning their positions or regional demands.
It is no coincidence, moreover, that regional developments have been set in motion against the backdrop of the escalating crisis between Turkey and Israel. These include the defense “Mecca Agreement” between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, while analysts say Israel is seeking to forge an axis involving Greece, Cyprus, India and the United Arab Emirates, based largely on the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
From the Greek perspective, however, it is an undeniable fact that the country’s strategic relationship with Israel and close defense, energy and technology cooperation have recently aggravated Greek-Turkish relations. Ankara has accused the two countries of targeting and encircling Turkey, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that “Turkey will not remain inactive in the face of actions it considers hostile in the region” (see GSI).
The “Achilles Shield” air-defense system is another major irritant for the Turkish president, as it effectively undermines Turkey’s longstanding practice of using the threat of military force while challenging Greek sovereign rights in practice.
Athens: No threats; no permission necessary to boost defense
Despite the existing climate of tension in the region, Greece’s position is clear: As long as it continues to stress that it threatens no one and will not seek anyone’s permission over how it equips its armed forces or which alliances it enters, deepening relations with Israel will remain part of its diplomatic strategy, while Athens will continue cultivating ties with other strategic partners in the Arab world and the European Union.
At the same time, Greece has sought to deepen its relationship with Israel without identifying itself with all of its positions.
As the rift between Turkey and Israel deepens and the “calm waters” in Greek-Turkish relations show increasingly larger waves, there is also growing interest in a possible visit to Athens by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A date is reportedly being sought, potentially even in October, although nothing has been finalized so far, according to officials familiar with the matter.
