NATO leaders convened in The Hague this week for a high-stakes summit designed to reinforce alliance unity, respond to growing security threats from Russia, and satisfy U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands for a dramatic increase in defense spending. But the gathering has been overshadowed by the geopolitical shockwaves of recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran, injecting fresh uncertainty into the alliance’s future direction.
New Defense Spending Goal Sets Bold Ambition
The central focus of the two-day summit is a new, ambitious target: members are being asked to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, more than doubling the current 2% benchmark. The goal is to be phased in over the next decade, with 3.5% allocated to core military needs—such as troops and equipment—and 1.5% toward broader security infrastructure, including roads, ports, cybersecurity, and energy protections.
“NATO does not have opt-outs or side deals. We all have to chip in,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Monday in The Hague, responding to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s claim that Spain would not meet the new spending goal despite approving the summit statement.
Last year, NATO states collectively spent approximately 2.6% of the alliance’s GDP on core defense, totaling around $1.3 trillion. The U.S. accounted for the majority of that, with nearly $818 billion in spending—fueling Washington’s long-standing insistence that European members shoulder more of the defense burden.
U.S. Strikes on Iran Add Tension to the Summit
The summit was carefully crafted to showcase NATO’s unity, but it has been disrupted by events far beyond Europe’s borders. Over the weekend, U.S. bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities, reigniting tensions in the Middle East and casting a shadow over the alliance’s ability to maintain cohesion.
Much will now depend on Iran’s response—or lack thereof. Tehran’s foreign minister has suggested attacks would cease if Israel ends what Iran calls its “illegal aggression,” but denied a formal ceasefire was in place. This has left NATO leaders uncertain about how far discussions will be dominated by U.S.-Iran tensions, with concerns that the military escalation could fracture focus and present NATO as disjointed in the face of multiple global crises.
Russia Looms Large, But Summit Statement Stays Measured
Despite the summit’s backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, the original intent remains clear: to reaffirm NATO’s deterrence posture against Russia. A draft of the summit statement, obtained by Reuters, reiterates Article 5 of the NATO treaty—the alliance’s core principle that an attack on one is an attack on all.
However, the statement includes only a single direct reference to Russia as a threat to Euro-Atlantic security, and one to supporting Ukraine—reflecting both diplomatic caution and the alliance’s desire to keep the summit message focused and unified.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to the summit’s messaging by accusing NATO of manufacturing threats to justify high military spending. “These are lies the West uses to fuel its arms budgets,” Putin said on Monday.
Ukraine’s Position Reflects Political Strains
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was invited to attend only the pre-summit dinner on Tuesday, rather than participating in the main leaders’ session on Wednesday—a reflection of his reportedly strained relationship with President Trump. The limited inclusion signals lingering political tensions within the alliance regarding the future of NATO’s relationship with Kyiv.
Europe Aims to Reassure U.S. Amid Fears of Troop Reductions
European leaders have expressed strong support for the new spending plan but want to implement it gradually to avoid gaps in their defense capabilities that could be exploited by Moscow. Many also hope their commitment will deter Trump from following through on past threats to reduce U.S. troop presence in Europe.
“There is clear recognition that we must step up—not just to defend ourselves but to preserve this alliance,” one European diplomat told Reuters.
